RESIDENTIAL SALE TRENDS~ 

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San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of

February Trends

03/10/2023

BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES?

While average and median sales price took a turn upward, the stand-out chart is closed sales, which is rummaging around the worst of times in 2009. but for different reasons.  Would-be sellers likely ask themselves where to go from here? And then there's that instinct of something coming.  

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January Trends

02/09/2023

UP THE DOWN STAIRCASE?

The chart on the trajectory of detached sold listings over time shows a stairstep down to the very bottom where records are kept, and the figures now show the number is hitting a modern-day basement record low at 882, and down 37.2% from last January.  Still keeping a very small stairstep above  January last  mark by .5% is the average sales price of  $1,183,368, albeit the chart on median price continued it descent since April's all-time high.  Pending sales of 1,177 will likely lift this market out of the basement in February, as will a 13.7% increase in active listings at 1,653 help March figures.  The days got longer for sellers, rising to 43 on average before going into escrow, but a far cry from L.A. County, now up to 56 days.  More affordable homes found in Santee and Lakeside went fairly quickly at 27 days.  Volume (value x # of sales) dropped 36.4% from last January to $1.08 billion, compared with all-time high of $3.03 billion in June, 2021, but there is no sign of recession in these numbers, and just a handful of bank foreclosures compared with 83 in L.A. County, which is still relatively small having 3 times the population. 

 

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December Trends

01/05/2023

PREMATURE TREND LINES ?

While it may be easy for a statistician to add a couple decimal points to the final jobs figure, the MLS data relies on the input of thousands of agents and also individually documented in public records. It's a given that sales prices always decline from Summer to Winter since fewer sellers in higher priced areas want to deal with the hassle of selling during the holidays while buyers tend to buy before school season and need to get enrolled before September.  Nevertheless, the charts show  that the small nuances of this in the past is now a nosedive in both pending sales (935) and new listings of 745, both setting new record lows, which will hardly bode well for January sales.  Couple that with chart on the number of sold in December at 988 which were 50% below last December, closing in on a modern-day record low of 897 in January 2008, it's not looking good kicking off 2023.   While both average and median sales prices did keep ahead of December last by roughly 2%, no matter which chart you read since 2004, the trend line that most resembles the current descent from the top (a 13% decrease from the record high in April of $1,000,000 median price to $870,000), happens to track only one descent this steep that started July, 2007 of a 14% decline.  Now each have different reasons: July of 2007 was the start of the mortgage meltdown where the over-stimulus from never-say-no programs of 100% loan-to-value loan programs, with nearly zero qualification requirements, got shelved as delinquencies shot up as a result of flimsy underwriting. Buyers were so excited about flipping not just one home but two in a year for profits, they didn't figure how many months of payments their "stated income" would cover.  That over-stimulated market had it's roots in 1999 deregulation of banking allowing the banks to invest deposits into the derivatives markets, and government zeal to get minority ownership levels higher at the cost of weak to little qualifying standards.  To make a long story short, leveraging debt with more debt (ie, derivatives) and complex insurance coverages on lenders' perceived limited exposure fell apart, triggered in part by Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and this house of credit risk cards felt apart leading to a serious recession.    While more months are needed to confirm this descent, it too has much to do with government over-stimulation:  From below market rates induced by Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities over the last 10 years called quantitative easing (QE), to these higher rates that start to be more in line with inflation, driving up monthly housing expense. 

If that's the limit of damage, a market slow-down and partial decline of home prices, then this no big deal.  However, reports are, and reported earlier here, that on a global scale, derivatives have soared with some estimates in the quadrillions  

Is this worn out and corrupted system about to fall under its own weight, and be replaced by a much stronger one, backed by gold and resilient against corruption? Many in the alt-media say "yes."  But first the fall of the old guard along their system  (see Rumor section in 3rd column)

GOT BOTS?

if you don't mind being followed around in search of properties, then you will welcome the coming of robot bots:

The use of advanced real estate bots will be widespread in 2023,” he said. “These bots include chatbots, virtual assistants, and voice bots. They will facilitate communication with customers and provide quick and accurate assistance. With these bots, real estate agents can effectively and promptly communicate with their clients and provide them with clear and relevant solutions.”    In other words, the more you search on separate sites like Zillow or Realtor.com, the more bots will be contacting you-- bots that answer questions by asking questions like "I don't understand.  Could you repeat the question?" Since every site is a redundant view of existing MLS listings, you only need one where you set your search parameters and the system automatically generates new and changed listings.  If you have questions, you simply email back to the agent that set up the search.  With Mesa Pacific, and knowing your down payment parameter, you can also receive a quick loan summary of costs and monthly payment AND answer any questions about a property.   Buyers also receive cash rebates that average $5000 when using our services.  For a list of properties that fit your criteria, contact Mesa Pacific today and beat the bots.

If you are looking to sell, get your free property analysis today and see why you do not need to spend $12,000-$20,000 more in listing fees with MPM.  This diagram tells it all. 

For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

12/02/2022

NO SIGN OF KATIE AT THE DOOR IN SAN DIEGO

If volume speaks volumes from last month's data, then November doesn't look all that bad at $1.955 billion when totaling all detached sale prices, but when totaling actual closed sales of 1,029, the chart shows we are getting very close to January 2008 level, a pretty bleak time with the mortgage meltdown kicking in.  But that's where the comparison ends as borrowers since that time had to meet strict underwriting guidelines compared with virtually no guidelines in many cases from 2005-2007.  The same goes for pending sales at 1025.  Both of these numbers are roughly 47% lower than this time last year!  These thin numbers have little to do with thin inventory, as there are 2,582 active listings, 60% higher than last November. No doubt the drop in sales activity has much to do with the doubling of interest rates over the last year from 3% to over 6%.  This makes would-be sellers better off staying put with their low mortgage rate they obtained over the last couple of years, unless they're moving to lower cost areas in the nation.  Hopefully, the .65% drop in mortgage rates in the last 30 days will change those numbers for the better, and it's already happening on a national basis as MBA tracking of purchase loan activity rose 3.8% in the last week.   Sellers had to cave a bit more on their list price cutting price 6% more from last year, but median sales price was still up 3.4% higher at $885k and average price increased 2.6% to $1,161,900.  While days on the market still look very good at 34 compared with L.A. County of 48, it's no longer the blistering pace of 24 days last November before rates took off.  The statisticians on the charts shave off the numbers on active listing days on the market for all detached listed properties, but the real number is 66 days.  Each area naturally varies, which is why a seller needs to be presented with stats in his/her immediate area and see why certain properties are sitting longer on the market.  Usually, it's the condition or the high-flying list price that does this.  Get your free analysis today and see why you do not need to spend $12,000-$20,000 more in listing fees.  This diagram tells it all. 

PROPERTY PEEKS

How close is too close to La Jolla beach?  This one for $28mil edged out others in proximity   The skies the limit on this home in La Jolla, that is over the top limit at 1028 days on the market for this 1280sqft home asking over $4mil. Pricing at play here for a long stay on the market?

PARADISE FOUND: Want to get out of Dodge and away from crowds?  This 4bdrm/3ba home is 3313 square feet and sits on 2.3 acres in a semi-rural area known as Eucalyptus Hills but only 20 minutes from La Jolla Shores.  With priceless panoramic views, It's priced at slightly higher than average sale prices here in the County.   Call today at 619-390-4042 or email at mesapac@cox.net to take a look at the details. 

October Trends

11/02/2022

SIGNAL CALLIN' ?

"41,44,44,44 hike!" might have been called out by the quarterback in a recent game, but these numbers represent a different set of signals being called out from the latest sales report:  41% more active listings, 44% fewer sold, 44%, fewer pending, and 44% less volume sold (total value of sold properties), all comparing last year's October sales.  While signaling a sharp downturn, the charts show average sales price of $1,189,078 managed to gain a yard or so and stay ahead at .8% from a year ago, and median price at $887,000 was 3% higher; but clearly the double-digit gains of many months have come to an end and the game begins in holding the line on last year's yards gained.  Nationwide, one chart tells it all in the activity index for purchase loans.   

September Trends

10-08-2022

The graph of active listings with the last entry of 55 days as of 9/26/2022 was in error.  While it is true when pulling data directly from MLS listings, apparently statisticians on monthly reports remove the lengthy listings which represent less marketable properties from their data findings.  The average on their findings is 31 days, still 41% higher than last year, but not considered a significant slowdown.  This month's data is nearly ditto for last month with median sales price at $915k, up 7.2% from last year, $1,173,188 on average sales price, but only a 2.7% year-over-year gain.  Of significance is active listings are up 28.4% from last September at 2,956. 

09/26/2022

MARKET HITTING THE BRAKES?

A simple graph of current active listings tells the tale, as average days on market zoom past those traditionally slow months of January, shooting up from 28 days last month to 55 today.  Sellers that need to sell will likely need to lower the asking price to get moving.  With mortgage rates continually on the rise, trends won't be reversing anytime soon.  09-03-2022

August Sales

NO RECESSION IN S.D. SALES DATA

San Diego skipped a recession back in the early1990's due to a variety of industries based here, (government defense and subcontractors, bio-med, technology companies, etc, and the latest sales data seems to reflect a buoyant market of buyers, not impacted by layoffs and rising mortage rates--just yet.  Both median and average sales prices continue to stay ahead of last year at this time, both 7% higher at $910k and $1.20mil respectively. However, the charts show both took an early turn south this Summer, and that $1,000,000 median price marker in April will no doubt remain tops for 2022 as will the average s/p of $1,342,000 in May.  This doesn't necessarily mean a home purchased in May is worth less today, but the bidding frenzy reflected in this chart on contract price to listed price that reached an all-time high in April could have something to do with all-time highs in sales prices, putting a special premium on some bought back then.  The market has now settled back closer to normal s/p to list of around 96%, but still doing so fairly swiftly with average days on market of 28.  Pending sales might be down 31% from last year, but at 1,612, if they survive the recent rate hikes, will help push closed sales numbers in September.  While the number of sold prices are still tracking in those slow Winter months of the past, volume of sales at $2.463 billion from these high-flying prices   keeps the tax assessor's office smiling. 

For a list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $5,000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​. 

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

July Sales

CHRISTMAS IN JULY?

While average and median sales prices ($1.262 mil +9% over last July, and $969k a 10.7% increase respectively) are those gifts that keep on giving to sellers and homeowners in general, agents feel the chill of Winter months closing in on them.  For instance, if sales were down by 43% from last year at the height of the sales season, managers would frown, as no company or industry could cheer.  Even at these high sales prices, the volume of sales is down 37.7% from year's last, and pending sales look a lot like past winters.  Granted this is not a stumbling market, even with mortgage rate increases (albeit a sudden mortgage gift by the Fed to augment sales-see left column) as buyers still swoop in with speed, as average days on the market registered a speedy 23, but not without bartering on the price.   Suddenly, instead of bidding an average of 6% over list in April, the figure has dropped closer to normal at slightly less than list price.  More sellers have decided to grab this gift while the gettin's good, as there are now 3,428 active listings, up 24.5% from last July.  This naturally would help reverse sales trends for September-October.   Chart A, # of sold is down 43.3% from last July and resembles all along past January levels (save 4-20 when market traumatized), Chart B Pending sales at 1,449 down 34.3%, much like past winter levels, and completely unlike the typical highs of Summer sales. Home-builders across the nation could hardly find any comfort in the latest trends as their inventory is rising along with the inflationary cost to build, which puts a big squeeze on future profitable projects.  For San Diegans, it appears that record for the median sales price value in April at $1,000,000 will stay intact for some time to come.

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June Sales

07-03-2022

HOTTER THAN THE 4TH OF JULY?

All things considered, sales in June showed remarkable resiliency to mortgage rate increases, albeit 19% of the 1591 sold were cash sales totaling nearly one-half billion in sales volume, with average sales price of $1,628.423 (that's a heap of dough!).  Sadly, total sales were 38% less than last June and chart seems to indicate it's downhill from here. Though more sellers are sensing it's a good time to sell with 23% more active listings standing at 2,998, pending sales at 1,418 won't be uplifting to sold data in July with 41.6% fewer than last June preparing to close in July.  Days on the market stood on average at 20, still hotter than most years where 30 back a decade or so ago was considered fast.  Average sales price took a slight downward turn at $1,297,000 from May's all-time record of $1,342,000 and that million-dollar marker set in April (see 5-01-22 Report below) remains the tops in the median sales data, but only slightly from June's $995,000 mark, but still 13.7% higher than June of 2021. This hot data seems poised to cool after the 4th of July celebration, considering active list prices have been lowered in many areas, frustrating supply bottlenecks, and some whiffs stagflation beginning to enter the economic arena. 

06/04/2022

May Sales

OVERCOMING THE ODDS

While the median sales price didn't make it over that high hurdle mark of $1,000,000 set last month, it came a close 2nd at $990,000.  That other featured stat last month of a 13% drop in pending sales in just one month, got a reprieve by reversing the fall from 1829 to 1865, yet still down 22% from May of 2021, due of course to that sharp rise in mortgage rates by 1% in April.  Like hitting snake eyes twice, the average price this month at $1,351,650 and last 2 months were less that $1,000 apart ($342 off April's), giving the chart that straight line look. This a numerical feat only matched by last month's median s/p with exactly 6 zeros behind a one.  Sellers have finally awakened to the call, possibly having visions of the future (see Market Sixth Sense below), as active listing finally turned north, taking us from a rock bottom record of a two week supply in 12/2021  to slightly over one month now.

Odds were against a buyer line-up after these rate hikes but the stats say buyers bid up list price by 4.7% and didn't wait around as average days on the market at 18 is still near all-time highs.  How well this market navigates over the decisions and dilemma facing the Feds as outlined in the Mortgage Report  will be what odds-makers live for.

April Sales

05/01/2022

MILLION DOLLAR MARKER: A TOUGH ACT TO FOLLOW?

Median sales price represents the mid-point of sales at any given time.  So imagine if the mid-point is $1,000,000.  Imagine no more as that is the latest sales data number for detached homes in San Diego County, up 19.1% from last year and a new record high.  Buyers were still breaking the all-time record for making offers 7% on average above list price, helping lift market prices once again  to an oddly even figure of $1,000,000.  While that eye-popping number doesn't suggest higher interest rates put a dent in sales, several areas do reflect a negative effect: pending sales chart shows a drop of 19% from April last year, and down to 1,858 from March's 2,143. a whopping 13% decline in one month,  uncharacteristic  in Spring annual cycles outside of April, 2020 during pandemic fright, which plunged to 1,307.  Then we have sold detached chart, which never turn south in April (2020 being the exception), took a turn for the worse at 1,844, down 21% from last year,  and down 5.8% below March numbers.  Now this one month big-time drop in pending sales  was occurring during the latest 1%  run-up in mortgage rates over the last 30 days (see 05/01/2022 report in left column), while closed sales involved  mortgage rates already locked into March levels- thus a lesser impact than what we likely will see in future sales.  This new record marker is going to be a tough act to follow, it would seem.  

04/03/2022

March Sales

PANIC BUYING ROCKETS PRICES

The overused March madness theme still has a place here in last month's sales action in San Diego County by just reviewing the almost surreal scoring stats.  The charts on the median and average sales prices since December have that look of a rocket launch, with average prices of detached home skyrocketing 22% just from December and up 29.1% from last year at this time, hitting a new record high of $1,359,350 and median price of $980,000.  Buyers snapped up properties in near record time (19 days on the market) and bid over the asking price on average by 6.6%, another record.  Active listings are still in the tank at 1123, 42.6% below last year, leaving the cupboards looking nearly bare at 2 weeks supply.  Pendings of 2129 and 1814 sold in the month help make that number shrink all the more.  Of course, the fuel of record low mortgage rates providing the propellant for this rocket launch trajectory has gotten weaker when one considers interest rates have increased by 1.50% since the start of the year and half of that happened in last 30 days. That's a payment INCREASE of $2000/mo. on a $600,000 loan or an increase of $1860/mo. from 30 days ago.  How many current pendings will get negatively affected by that and for sales going forward in April?

February Sales

March 5th, 2022

MARKET SIXTH SENSE ?

While everything is turning up rosy for homeowners who had that common sense to buy a home years ago, including that rose of yet another record high in both median and average sales prices, a whopping $915,000  (18.1% year-over-year increase) and $1,262,360 (21.4% increase) respectively,  the lingering question is why have so many of the potential sellers, that are typically present in these annual cycles, disappeared from the market, and decided to stay put.   While record low inventory here at just two week's supply as depicted on this historical chart for detached homes, can't really get much lower than this, the trend is not unique as much of the nation also is heading in the same low inventory affliction.   Looking at the historical active listing charts on all property types we see it wasn't the fear of the pandemic that began in March 2020 that started this trend, which most analysts suggest, as it began in earnest back in September of 2018, not just with detached homes, but all home types.  The economy had the highest GDP per capita in 2018-2019, so economic fundamentals were good. Comparing February active listings beginning in 2019, there were 13,389, which magically dropped to 5,625 in February, 2020 before the pandemic. That's a 58% annual decline.  A year later during the height of the fear, the count was down to  3,456, a 38.6% annual decline, and now whittled down to 1,867 units of all types, a 46% annual decline.  There are those who believe in psychic abilities in mass and one individual built a software that sorts internet wording and activities of millions of people that allow him to predict future behavior, at least as far as public moods go, so is this sixth sense at play here? 

 

 Use all of your senses and pick a company with steep discounts to sellers, rebates to buyers, and mortgage prices below all others by calling Mesa Pacific today and compare. 

January Sales.

February 5th 2022

HIDDEN MYSTERIES OF THE MARKET?

It's another celebration for homeowners as the median sales price of detached homes broke new higher ground at $855,000, a 19.4% increase from last year, and edging out June-July all-time highs by $10,000.  Same deal with the chart on average price gains of 18.9% from last year and new record of $1,190,250.  Sadly, for buyers in the hunt and the thinning ranks of some 20,000+  R.E. agents, active detached listing shows shrinkage once again to a new record low.  This phenomenon is not isolated to San Diego County as the chart for L.A. County, 3 times the population size of S.D., shows similar declines of 66% since January of 2018.  Riverside chart shows the exact same rate of decline, going from 5,746 to 1929 in same time period. How weird is that?  Orange County hit rock bottom at just 870 in December, with January decline from January of 2018 at 73%.  San Diego tops the decline from same period by 87%.  But weirder still is the mystery that shows up in this chart where active listings in S.D. collapsed by a whopping 43% in just 2 months (wIth no surge in sales), in the prime of the season starting July 2019, AND 7 months before the pandemic outbreak.

January 8th 2022

FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS? IT TOLLS FOR THEE BUYERS IN JANUARY 

Yep.  Based on the latest data, the shelves are virtually empty this January of SFR detached homes in all of San Diego County in the category once called Active Listings.  As the chart suggests, it's hit a rock bottom low for these charts* dating to 2004 to just 914 properties.  That adds up to another all-time low as this chart will show of a scant 12 days of inventory, down a whopping 60% from December last (a 6 month supply was considered to be  a healthy balance).  Unless these multiple listing machines are busted, it's far worse in L.A. County, three times the population of San Diego County, where active SFR detached  listings per their CRMLS is a tiny 1,273.  A city where you would expect sellers to be fleeing, and more populated than our County, shows 248 active listings in the City of Los Angeles (?)   Homeowners should be grinning ear to ear as values hold up at near record levels.  At $850,000 medium price, and 14% above this time last year, it's within earshot of the record tied in June and July of $875,000.  Similar, but larger figures are reserved for the average sales price of $1.115 million, up 14.5% from December 2020, and slightly lower than the all-time high of $1.176 million registered in June 2021.  Sellers of SFR detached, got what they wanted, and then some as percentage of list price to sold was an extra 2%, compared with  the  record of an extra 4.9% above list price was achieved last June.  The number of sold homes at 1,881 is 15.5% lower than 12/20, while pendings will be giving no aid to lift sold data in January as they  too are down 13%.  The bell does seem to be tolling for buyers this Winter. Even the condo market is depressed with just 430 active listings.  Perhaps the best thing for home buying shoppers is to hold off until the Spring and hope inventory shelves get replenished. 

 

*(all S.D. data from  SDMLSA but will verify with local offices this coming week

on this Southland listing phenomena) 

 November 5th, 2021

THERE SHE BREACHES!

Any wonder that sale prices have been  back to double digit increases from last year when we see real inflation doing the same (see 10-18 report in right column)?  The standout gain and a chart that could be framed was  average sales price of a detached home, breaching at an all-time record high of $1,178,193, up 14.6% from October last as is the median price of $862,495.  Sellers are still getting prices above list price (101.3%) as buyers continue rushing the purchase gates with average days on the market still extremely low at 22.  As the chart shows, one infamous new record going back to 2004 is the number of active listings at just 1,723.  Sold (2,024)and pending sales (2044) are almost identical and a guide to November closures.  December is an open book with sales hoping to dodge the potential of a global debt bond explosion (see 10-18-21 article in left column). 

 

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

August Sales

A BREAK IN THE BREAKING OF RECORDS (?)

While the median sales price for SFR detached was up 15.6% from last year at $854,000, it faltered a bit from July's all-time record high at $875,000

June Sales Data

07/04/2021

LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, RECORDS BREAK AGAIN~

A common measurement in home statistics over the decades is called Months of Supply, or how many months it would take to sell existing inventory.  San Diego just eclipsed that measurement to days of supply of just 27 days.  When 6 months supply was once considered a healthy balance and offered many opportunities for buyers to pick and choose, and negotiate price, that world has disappeared for now.  The chart shows .9 months supply, and the decline started in earnest in August 2019, well before any viral fears.  While San Diego is definitely in the lead in this category,  nationwide this chart shows similar trends, dropping from 4.5 months in May 2020 to 2.5 May 2021.    With the same frustrated bidders out in force again this month,  negotiations on price hit a new record of 5% over list price in what is nothing short of intense bidding war for available properties.   All that action naturally created yet another record in median sales price at $878,750, up just like last month by 29.2%  from June of 2020.  Up even higher by 35.3% is the average sales price of $1,180,152, assisted by the fact that 40% of  all detached sales were over $1,000,000.  This should hold up for next month as pending sales in this category are up 46% from last June to 806 homes.  After the hiatus in sales following the initial viral fears where May 2020 recorded a dismal 1,328 detached sold,  the latest data shows nearly a doubling of closed sales to a normal level  of 2,474, 20% higher than June of 2020. The bogeyman for the market is again, plummeting active listings as show in the chart.

Condo and other attached sellers were having a good time as well, with median sales price up 21.4% to a new record of $550,000.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, or how our "no cost listing program" works, contact Mesa Pacific today.   

 

May Sales Data

06/02/2021

HOMEOWNERS PLANT THE FLAG

When should a chart named ACTIVE LISTINGS be changed to INACTIVE? When you see a chart that looks like this.  Descending to the lowest of lows (at least since 2004) and this happening in what would normally be considered the height of listing period.  If 1651 is now the new normal when 9500-10,000 is typical for May,  then the industry is in big trouble.  Not so says the County government, where all sales volume had back-to-back records that totaled $6.88 billion, and roughly translates to property tax revenues of $82,000,000.  This volume relates to  sales prices where records were broken again, with chart showing median sales price of detached homes zooming to $875,000, an 18% climb from just 5 months ago, and a whopping 30% from May-June 2020.  One might think the exceedingly low active listing is because they went so fast, which is true in that a new record in Days on Market was set at a mere 20 days, amidst intense bidding wars that drove prices on average of 4.7% higher than list price, yet another record set here.   But add up pending sales of 2,391 and sold of 2071 with active listings, and they only total 6,113, well short of even typical active listings of 9,500-10,000.  So where have all the would-be sellers gone?  The decline began well before the COVID scare.  Is San Diego simply THE PLACE to stay put and no significant construction to entice home-owners to move on up?

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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 March Sales Data

04/24/2021

ARE SELLERS TIRED OF WINNING ?

The records shattered in March say sellers are winning at every level while it should be  buyers who are growing tired, standing in line of a bidding war.  All-time Record #1 as chart depicts: 20.8% increase in sales price over last year to $810,000, making all home-owners very happy indeed.   Record  #2 Percent sales price to listing at new high of 103.3%.  All-time Record #3: Days on market to all time low of 21 days, 32%  lower than last year.  these few stats suggest housing sales on fire.  However, one record remaining says it's not that rosy of a picture: All-time record #4 is active listings down a whopping 59.7% below April of last year, and during height of COVID scare.  So assume same amount of buyers looking each month over last several years but now faced  with inventory sliced down to the bone, and a dog fight naturally  ensues.    Pending sales of 2306, up 39.8% from same time-period last year, shows more of the same good fortunes to come for sellers by this month's end.

 

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

February Sales Data 

03/01/2021

RECORD BREAKING ONE-UPMANSHIP?

If there is one sales marketing tool that will be stated over and over again in every brokerage company this month, it will be:  "Sold Over Listing Price."  Whether by design of listing low to create more buyer bidding or just the forces of the market can't be told by this record-breaking chart on Sales Percent To Original Listing (note it's the first time average bids were 101.4% of list price) but  recording breaking median sales prices on detached homes, plus near-record lows of 27 days on the market, do.  Just when you thought 6% annual price increases or less were the new norm, up pops a 15.6% increase from last year and new record high of $780,000.   If following the averages, that figure is up a whopping 24% to $1,055,908--and all of this before Spring has officially sprung.  Buyers may have been  sensing the cheapest mortgage prices may not last (and they are right judging by latest activity in the bond market-see adjacent column on this), so bidding up the price to fend off competitors is the story of the last couple of months.  Add to this buyer frustration is the continued lack of inventory, where the term "Active" listing is almost oxymoronic and as the chart demonstrates, is down to an all-time record low of 1419, 63% lower than this time last year.  This story should wake potential sellers up as there is no greener light like this. 

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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June 7th, 2020

PHOENIX RISIN' (?)

Out of the ashes of a self-induced economic slump that brought us Depression era unemployment rates of some 20%, comes statistical signs here in San Diego that this too shall pass.  Detached pending sales, always a harbinger of home sales to come, shot up in a trajectory not seen in normal times, depicted by this chart, up an amazing 59% in just one month. This happening on the heels of some woeful sales numbers for detached homes against last year at this time: 1220 sold, down 44%,  active listings down 41%, dollar volume, down 47% (putting the squeeze on local government revenue).  Sellers, not buyers, were deterred by the virus, as buyers jumped in: based on speed of sales, just 29 average days on the market, May's timing still  rivals with the best on record posted this April at 26 days.   While new listings are down 28% from last year, they too rose from the ashes, up 32% from just a month ago.  With the chart showing active listings limping along the same low line from December to now, there's plenty of elbow room for new sellers to enter this market.  Gauging by  a look at medium sold prices showing  only a miniscule gain of .9% over last year, waiting for greater gains at sale doesn't appear to be worth the wait.

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

May 1st, 2020

IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS (?)

While a far cry from media headlines throughout April,  Christmas data is here in San Diego real estate.  Yes, homeowners got yet another gift as the chart shows a new record high in detached median sales price, up 4.7% from last April to $683,000.  The pace of  sold detached sales was a staggering 28 average days on the market, beat only by one month going back in July of 2004 at 23 days, and sold price was 99.2% of list price, even with March for the best ever--  two more gifts to sellers.  The rest of the data definitely looks a lot like Christmas activity: new listings were down 42.2% at 2,845, but still higher than any December in the past.  Pendings, down 40.2% from April 2019, followed that same holiday season break, still hovering slightly above or below Decembers of 2018 and 2019, and sets the stage for more weak sales coming in May.  Active listings of 2872, down 38.8% from last year, are nearly identical to those of  Christmas, 2019.  In a tell-tale graph of something gone wrong,  it shows the number of sold properties in April historically rose well above prior months of that year, but took a sharp dive from March, dropping 20% in one month, and 32% below last April, and looking a lot like Christmas sales of the past.  While one might guess that buyers are reluctant to buy with business closures, the data shows buyers snatching up properties at a record pacing, with little negotiating on list price, and would-be sellers (with inventory bottoming out) most affected by the virus, possibly having  visions of masked men and women arriving at their doorstep,  potentially dropping off a virus that might kill them.  The good news is that more Americans died from the common flu in 2018 when no masks were required by law, and sales were 43% higher in April of 2018.   Buyers and agents are being allowed to see properties so the only restriction involves those wheel spinning open houses that make listing agents look busy.

  

 

 

April 7th, 2020

STORM BEFORE THE CALM (?)

While March detached sales are doing that characteristic thing, carrying the median sales price to new record heights at $680,000, up 8% from last year, and average days on the market (tied with record lows of just 30 days) would make any listing agent look good, several lead  bits of data for future sales are not following that characteristic historical script: pending sales are down 1,692, 18% less than this time last year, and active listing fell to lowest level in modern times at 2,872, down a whopping 36% from last March.  Will April showers*

bring May flowers?

 

*(now a viral deluge as mainstream media might describe, but will U.S. deaths match the 80,000 flu deaths in 2018 that happened with only a few news bulletins posted about the flu killing up to 4000/wk and zero suggestions about closings of anything, including home listing showings, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches during Holy Week, and the Orwellian Los Angeles  rule for neighbors snitching on neighbors)

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

March 8th 2020

 LEAP YEAR IN RARIFIED AIR (?)

Rare is it to expect all-time records to fall in February but it just happened as median sales price of detached homes rose 8.5% from last Feb to $678,000.  While many will say it is due to lower mortgage rates, which, on average, were lower by  less than 1/4% from December, the real action from rate declines should start for future sales as market rates have tumbled by over 1/2% in the early days of March from February's average (see Mortgage Report) !! No doubt the market nemesis is at play here, as active detached listings  touched down at a new record low of just 2,679, a whopping 40.1% decline from February 2019.  This inventory squeeze helped sellers get what they bargained for as the percent of selling   price to list price reached 98.3%, topped only by the peak season in July of 2013, when it became abundantly clear the bottom of the marketplace from the recession had come and gone.  Even sellers over $1,000,000 had there way with prices, as they got 95.8% of asking price, just shy of the all-time  best of 96.5% in 3/2017. This million+ category shows closed sales were up by 23.2% to 281, best February number on record. But the real stand-out figure says the best is yet to come.  By using the divining rod of pending sales, it shows a huge gain at 49.8% to 442, which will no doubt have March sales  beating out February closed sales of 281, up 23.2% from 2/2019.  Condo/attached follows similar patterns as detached with the median sales price topping all months heretofore at $450,000, up 9.4% from last year.

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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February 9th 2020

COLD WINTER SALES MEET UP WITH STORMY DEMAND (?)

It may be cold outside for San Diegans and called the "off-season" for home-buying, but that didn't stop buyers from pressing on to outbid their competition amid strikingly low volume of homes

-- so low it broke the record* with only 2,730 detached listings (and 40%  lower than last January).  Those conditions made for a 9.3% increase in the median sales price compared with last January, and uncharacteristically this season tied  the all-time record high that hit at the top of normal sales season in June of 2019 at $670,000.  Even sellers of properties above $1,000,000 saw their prices rise by 4.4%.  Pending sales in this category are up 33% with all detached up by 8.4% so this trend line should not stall out in February.  While homeowners can smile at this chart, imagine any corporation dealing with sales activity dropping by 40% from a year ago. So picture  those grueling sales meetings,  tabulating the efforts of tens of thousands of registered agents in San Diego, all getting grilled on their lousy performance that's down by 40% from last year.  If they have this chart in hand,  they shouldn't take it to heart.  

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For frustrated would be buyers, the sun (and new listings) will come out tomorrow--and the cost of borrowing improved.   Get a jump on these by receiving an automated notice of new listings that fit your  search criteria, and receive large cash rebates that average $4000 when represented by Mesa Paciic.  

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*(December active listings revised to 2,805, as all sales data is unofficial when previewed early)

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Sneak Preview of December Data

January 4th 2020

NEW RECORD OF ILL REPUTE (?)

While homeowners can continue grinning ear to ear going into the new year with detached resale homes rising 6.7% from last December at $665,000 (dead even with November and that of the high-flying summer season of 8/2018),  the nemesis for would-be buyers  hit a new record low:  just 2,611 active listings, a whopping 39.8% below December last.  With all property types included,   the same new record low happened for this grouping  (4501, down 33%) in a County population of 1.24 million households according to 2018 census.   With so few active listings also in November (see 12/7 report), is it any wonder that closed detached sales (1,515)  barely gained over last December, and will likely put sales in a deep freeze in January?  Top this off with relatively few days on the market (38 days average) compared with past winter months,  it all adds up to favorable conditions for sellers to enter the market now.  

 

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)S of sales at 29 days average, 9.4% faster than last year, nearing all time speed records--and that speed gave sellers a lift in their loafers, pushing the median sales price up to a new record high of $657,000, a  6.8% annual increase.  The rocket's red glare of dollar volume lit up at the City and County's assessors' offices, where total volume on all real estate sales spiked to a new record at $3 billion 78 million. With active listings now even with last year at this time after hitting rock bottom in December, 2017, a 50% climb since then,  the charts say would-be sellers should jump into this market as anxious buyers await. 

(please click on underlined text for charts)

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May 5th, 2018

UNCHARTED WATERS (?)

Predicting the future has its hazards, but our prediction of higher sales in April due to spurt in pending sales held up, rising 8.5% higher than March closed sales. *  That may seem like a given, but when the start of the year was a scratch with the lowest new listings in modern times of 1330, San Diego resale markets dipped into uncharted waters.  April closed sales are still down from last year at this time by 8%, mostly due to the continued squeeze on inventory.  However, what is breathing new life into the market are  new April listings that are more than double from the record low 4 months ago and now up to 3096, 2.1% higher than last April.   Though still only at an anemic 2 months’ supply, buyers get a better shot at finding a suitable property, but not without additional costs.  The median sales price on detached homes is continuing that climb, up 8.3% from last April to $640,000, a new record high.  And with that record high coupled with decent sales numbers, dollar volume has to be putting smiles on tax assessors and other government officials, tapping into uncharted record volume for all residential real estate transactions totally $2.84 billion. Listing agents of all stripes brag about their exclusive system that gets the seller’s home sold quickly and at the listing price.  One  would not hear these claims back in December 2011 when the  days on the marketstretched to 85 versus the near record low today of 25, and when the average sales price was 7.3% below list price compared with 1.9% today (or .1% based on median calcs).  All stats are unofficial, and are announced later in the month by NAR. 

If you would like a free list of properties that fit your criteria, or a closer look at your home value, please contact us today.

*(Mesa Pacific had a hand in the stats by closing the highest home sale in San Marcos at $2,150,000). 

April 5th, 2018

Remote Viewing For April Sales Data

When viewing these charts along with recent past ones, remote viewing into the future is not required—at least for the next 30 days.  With the inclusion of pending home sales data of a few days ago totaling 2,220, up 30% from a month ago, it is safe to conjure up visions of April closed sales rising above March’s 1738, which rose 24% beyond February’s doldrums numbers.  Granted, active and closed sales still show anemic growth, each down double digits from March of 2017, as tight supply of just 1.9 months ( 6 mos. being the old norm and worst was 12.5 back in 01/08) leaves buyers with few choices, and drives both the pace of sales to only 32 days, faster by 15.8% than last March, and sellers getting98% of their asking price.   Those that have bought are happy campers to see themedian sales price for detached homes continue to rise here in March by 10.4% from 3-17 to $635,000. 

If you would like a free list of properties that fit your criteria, or a closer look at your home value, please contact us today.

March 3rd, 2018

VANISHING SPECIES ?

The official tally for pending sales in January was released a few days ago with this story heading: Pending home sales tumble to a 3-year low as a lead for what is in store for February sales, but we’ll flash forward and take a look a month ahead of time to see what March sales may look like here in San Diego.  While detached pending sales registered by 2-28-18 were lower by 6.9% from a year earlier, the chart shows they follow that characteristic climb from December’s basement, increasing by some 33%; so it should be safe to say that March sales won’t continue to crater like they did in February, which were down 12.4% from last February, and surprising lower than the start of 2018  by a few sales, which the chart illustrates.  As has been the case for some time, one cannot expect large sales numbers with so few listings, which are still riding at record low levels.  Another record-setting event is for average days on the market of 35, which is the lowest for any February charted, and lowest for most all prime-time Summer sales.  That says a lot for buyers in the hunt, and for prices paid which continue to rise with a medium sales price of $612,000, up 9.3% from last February.  So when the sales negotiation dust settled in February, buyers paid, on average, 98.1% of the asking price to win the bid, and the chartsays this beats nearly all months recorded.   No doubt buyers, especially from the chilly East, have already recognized that San Diego gets premium prices, so this chart of a vanishing species of detached homes won’t be any surprise.  Detached homes in the price range of $350,000 to $450,000 are down by 47.5% from last year, and likely to continue given the continual upward movement of home prices.  However, there were 169 sold last month in this price range, and 207 still available.   If you would like a free list of properties that fit your criteria, or a closer look at your home value, please contact us today.

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February 2nd, 2018

GROUNDHOG DAY PREDICTIONS WITH LATEST JANUARY DATA

While back East, the groundhog saw his shadow today, predicting 6 more weeks of Winter, San Diegans patiently await Winter and the rains it brings.  Alas our Indian Summer weather cannot be blamed on the new record low in detached home listings (going back to 2004 where the chart ends).  Not only were the 2974 active listings 23.7% below last year at this time, the count was 20% lower than the low of March 2004. Fewer listings mean fewer sales which were down 10.5% from last year. But with the pace of sales still moving briskly at 41 days average on the market,  the squeeze on supply from this ongoing demand pushed January prices 7% higher than January of 2016.  At least pending sales are up 4.2%, which would help turn the tide upward in February.

For a close-up look at your property value, contact us today for a free valuation report.

January 2nd, 2018

FIRST PEEK AT DECEMBER SALES DATA: HOW HIGH, HOW LOW THIS JANUARY?

While some  hung-over listing agents may be late reporting last minute December closings here in San Diego,  data this early out* still tell the tale of a market continuing to run out of home listings--and the chart shows this is at record low levels.   The combination of fast sales (38 days on the market) nearly 16% faster than last December, and record low new listingsper chart, put pressure on prices to the upside, up 8.8% from last December to median price of $615,000.  The charts also show that historically, there will be even greater constraints on supply this month , so could active listings force a reformatting of the bottom of the charts?  The lack of inventory is by no means a sign of weakness, as the dollar volume in sales leaped back up to $2.3 billion, a 63% increase from last December, putting smiles on SD tax assessors' bookkeepers.  Since we're in no man's land as far as the data shows going back to 2004 on all key indictors supporting sellers,  home-owners looking to sell early this year will find a welcome mat awaiting.

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*(the data is preliminary and unofficial. Official findings will be announced later in the month).  

December 6th, 2017

CHRISTMAS COMES EARLY IN NOVEMBER (?)

Preliminary  data* on November sales shows homeowners receiving the gift that seems to keep on giving: double-digit increases in home values this November on detached resale homes compared with last November.  While it is great to receive,  the giveth on the part of would-be buyers is where frustrations must be felt.  Lofty plans to own a home by Christmas has been snatched up by the Grinch,  represented by the  lucky buyers with the winning bid on a skimpy list of active sales. The record speed of sales is keeping pace with October (see report below), but you have to wonder why listing agents think that a quick sale within a few days of listing  is in the best interest of the seller, without the benefit of being exposed to the maximum amount of buyers.  Unlike the forced sales of years gone by, thebank owned sold chart tells the tale that Ebenezer look-alikes are few and no longer knocking on doors with trustee sale notices.

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Mesa Pacific can help stimulate sales by our discounts in mortgage prices (at least $3000 in provable savings), cash rebates to buyers, and low to no cost listing programs.  Contact us today for details.

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*(figures are unofficial and subject to change)

 

 

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Recommendations

I am writing this letter in support of the succcessful effort put forth on our behalf by Mesa Pacific and specifically for the work done by William Ray.  We listed the property  with a nationally recognized real estate agency.  The property did not sell.  Frustrated and disappointed after our six month contract expired, we contacted Mesa Pacific. He came in with a positive attitude and many great new ideas to prepare the property for sale.  We also were excited about the opportunity to save substantial money on the commission rate they asked for.  Our property was sold in 30 days after signing with Mesa Pacific and for the amount we had originally targeted.

 

__________________________

I would like to recommend the services of Bill Ray at Mesa Pacific, who assisted me in selling my home on Brian Way in El Cajon, and purchasing a replacement property.  Bill Ray made me an offer I could hardly refuse using his no cost listing program, which saved me some $13,000 in listing fees other brokerage firms would have charged. 

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 Bill Ray was absolutely invaluable when it came time to sell my mother's rental property.  My mother had passed away and I live a considerable distance from the area.  Bill is very knowledgeable about the local real estate market and was able to provide me with the information I needed to make necessary decisions.  I listed the property with Bill and have been really happy with that choice.  The property was in really bad shape and needed a lot of work. Bill went way above and beyond what he needed to do in order to help prepare the property for sale.  He researched contractors, obtained estimates, and oversaw the repairs

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"We purchased our home in beautiful Eucalyptus Hills and would like to recommend Bill Ray of Mesa Pacific Mortgage to anyone seeking the best mortgage pricing and professional services.   We received a VA loan quote from our credit union and Bill´s pricing beat the credit union by $6000.  In fact, the lender credits through his wholesale mortgage company paid all of our closing costs and tax & insurance impounds, so we ended up paying nothing out of pocket, and received our deposit back at close-- and all on a 30yr. fixed-rate loan."

 

We compared mortgage prices and Mesa Pacific beat others by far in rate and cost.  Bill Ray helped us locate and negotiate the purchase of the home at a price under the appraised value, and provided a cash rebate at close in the amount of $4,100. 

 

 

 

 

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