San Diego Real Estate Trends

RESIDENTIAL SALE TRENDS~ 
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of May Sales Data
06/02/2021
HOMEOWNERS PLANT THE FLAG
When should a chart named ACTIVE LISTINGS be changed to INACTIVE? When you see a chart that looks like this.  Descending to the lowest of lows (at least since 2004) and this happening in what would normally be considered the height of listing period.  If 1651 is now the new normal when 9500-10,000 is typical for May,  then the industry is in big trouble.  Not so says the County government, where all sales volume had back-to-back records that totaled $6.88 billion, and roughly translates to property tax revenues of $82,000,000.  This volume relates to  sales prices where records were broken again, with chart showing median sales price of detached homes zooming to $875,000, an 18% climb from just 5 months ago, and a whopping 30% from May-June 2020.  One might think the exceedingly low active listing is because they went so fast, which is true in that a new record in Days on Market was set at a mere 20 days, amidst intense bidding wars that drove prices on average of 4.7% higher than list price, yet another record set here.   But add up pending sales of 2,391 and sold of 2071 with active listings, and they only total 6,113, well short of even typical active listings of 9,500-10,000.  So where have all the would-be sellers gone?  The decline began well before the COVID scare.  Is San Diego simply THE PLACE to stay put and no significant construction to entice home-owners to move on up?
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
San Diego Market- Preview of
March Sales Data
ARE SELLERS TIRED OF WINNING ?
The records shattered in March say sellers are winning at every level while it should be  buyers who are growing tired, standing in line of a bidding war.  All-time Record #1 as chart depicts: 20.8% increase in sales price over last year to $810,000, making all home-owners very happy indeed.   Record  #2 Percent sales price to listing at new high of 103.3%.  All-time Record #3: Days on market to all time low of 21 days, 32%  lower than last year.  these few stats suggest housing sales on fire.  However, one record remaining says it's not that rosy of a picture: All-time record #4 is active listings down a whopping 59.7% below April of last year, and during height of COVID scare.  So assume same amount of buyers looking each month over last several years but now faced  with inventory sliced down to the bone, and a dog fight naturally  ensues.    Pending sales of 2306, up 39.8% from same time-period last year, shows more of the same good fortunes to come for sellers by this month's end.
 
February Sales Data 
03/01/2021
RECORD BREAKING ONE-UPMANSHIP?
If there is one sales marketing tool that will be stated over and over again in every brokerage company this month, it will be:  "Sold Over Listing Price."  Whether by design of listing low to create more buyer bidding or just the forces of the market can't be told by this record-breaking chart on Sales Percent To Original Listing (note it's the first time average bids were 101.4% of list price) but  recording breaking median sales prices on detached homes, plus near-record lows of 27 days on the market, do.  Just when you thought 6% annual price increases or less were the new norm, up pops a 15.6% increase from last year and new record high of $780,000.   If following the averages, that figure is up a whopping 24% to $1,055,908--and all of this before Spring has officially sprung.  Buyers may have been  sensing the cheapest mortgage prices may not last (and they are right judging by latest activity in the bond market-see adjacent column on this), so bidding up the price to fend off competitors is the story of the last couple of months.  Add to this buyer frustration is the continued lack of inventory, where the term "Active" listing is almost oxymoronic and as the chart demonstrates, is down to an all-time record low of 1419, 63% lower than this time last year.  This story should wake potential sellers up as there is no greener light like this. 
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
02/06/2021
 IT'S UNBELIEVABLE
 One would think someone cooked the books with numbers like these,  Not only were sales moving faster back to back  in December and now January at a pace  just a few days shy of the all-time speed of 24 days on the market in 2004, but it happened in the dead of Winter,  as the chart shows is notoriously the slowest time of every year since 2004.   In another stunning bit of data for detached homes, is the category of what used to be called Active sales, which careened off the chart, falling an astounding 60.5% from last January to the lowest level recorded since these charts were tracked in 2004. While the chart on the number of sold homes would impress astrologists and reads like a well-scripted storyline for each and every January, hitting rock bottom at the start of the year,  sales are nevertheless riding on a much higher plane  over last 7 years than the years prior to that.  Pending sales at 1769 will pretty much guarantee February charts will turn the tide upward as usual, but what the chart shows as the unusual was April-May, 2020 sales that took a nosedive due to the big V.  Median sales prices are holding the line near the record top of the  charts, but the average price is one that will be remembered at $1,006,000, up 17% from last year.  So while sold home numbers don't impress,  dollar volume at $1.8b, UP 51% from last January, certainly  keeps the tax assessors smiling.   All in all,  potential home sellers, with few competitors, are either still afraid to go outside of nothing more than a serious bout with the flu, or content as cows grazing at home sweet home in San Diego's rich grasslands.  
12/06/2020
FEARLESS WARRIOR BUYERS ?
While potential sellers may be sheepish about masked buyers  traipsing through their homes, visualizing  trails of coronavirus in their wake (considering active listings are down 52% from last November), buyers thought otherwise, as detached sales rose 20% from November  2019, back when the air was free and clear of these bugs that are so small (10 times smaller than bacteria and about as deadly as influenza), that they pass right through the best masks like a basketball through a hula hoop.  Put these last 3 month sales back to back with sales of Sept-Oct-Nov of 2019, and the increases of 1,422 nearly made up for the lost sales during the height of Pandemic fears of March, April, and May.  While prices tend to usually dip in this off-season, this price chart  shows the surge from buyers is keeping prices at their record lofty levels with median price for detached remaining at $750,000.
 
October 13, 2020
 PANDEMIC YOU SAY? 
Buyers apparently voted with their feet  about pandemic fears, as detached sales jumped to 2475, a whopping 31% higher than last September, and only beaten slightly by 6 past seasons since 2004.
September 9th, 2020
ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RECORD
San Diego homeowners may get tired of winning each and every month, climbing to new record highs like detached homes did in August, up 14% from a year ago and now at median price of $750,000.  But how about a new record high that's up 31% from last year?  That one belongs to manufactured and mobile home sales hitting $200,000 in median sales price, a whopping jump in price of 41% from last month.  Granted,  only 111 total sales does skew those gains, but it's a decent gain and way for young to get a foothold into the market (provided they own the land beneath the unit), or elders seeking retirement without a horsey mortgage payment.  Buyers/ owner-builders of manufactured homes should know that appraisers must use sales of other manufactured homes for comps so you get what you paid for (plus or minus  the amount what others paid recently).   A so-called stick built home cost more but your value is riding higher with other similar built homes.  So the trick is to weigh the  current resale market value  of each and the cost differential to build, and plug in value increase of say 2-3% per year over 10 years, and figure equity of each less cost of ownership.    What some novice buyers of mobile homes don't realize, once the land lease is up and the owners decide to build that hotel/motel on the greens, they have to pick up their depreciated unit and move on--likely to loftier land leases, and really didn't get ahead financially over time--and maybe fell behind the inflation eight ball.   Fixing as much of your housing expense now is the goal, as inflation may hit renters the hardest each time the lease is renewed in future years.
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
August 4th, 2020
STOP THE PRESSES!
What's the most surprising economic data to come out of a so-called global pandemic that 's still growing in cases, but shrinking in rates of death here in the U.S.?  Outside of the fact that total  deaths in 2020 will have to play catch up to 2017 and 2018 levels that averaged 2,826,000 , is that median sales prices here in San Diego  just shot up 11.4% higher than  July of 2019.  Now if one wants a really bold news flash number, it's  $946,000,  the average sales price of detached homes, a new record high  and  a whopping 14.2% higher than July of 2019.  Still, the median price is what is normally  tracked and that is $730,000 (half the sales above this figure and half below it), and that's the  11.4% increase that is still amazing in a market that used to see these bold increases, but started to settle in just above inflation levels.   It's pretty obvious that the higher price homes are revving things up and sure enough,   that's where the increases are happening.  While sales prices are not jumping here, the number of sales are, pushing up the averages and median prices:  sales above $1,000,000 increased by 42%, and that's going to happen all over again next month as pendings at this altitude are up 65% from last year.  Down where the  rest of us reside below that $1mil hashmark, overall sales of detached homes rose  out of the ashes of viral scares in May by some 60% ,from  a paltry 949, to 1519. in July.  Every chart takes  flight from May lows, except active listings, which had been a systemic problem well before the pandemic.  No doubt record low interest rates keep buyers actively bidding on rising prices, and this drove buyers to pay, on average, 99% of asking prices, near a new record.  Will  would-be sellers come out to play their hand at the height of the season?  Buyers appear likely to deal.  
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of June Sales Data
July 7th 2020
PENDINGS KEEP ON RISIN' AND SO DO PRICES
While pending sales keep last month's theme alive, shooting up in the charts, and now up 92.5% from April's fright, another chart quietly shows a new record high for median sales prices for detached homes at $686,000.
While it is apparent potential sellers tried to keep the bug outdoors by  not listing their homes  (2616 active, down 49% from last year)  that didn't stop buyers from going door-to-door after available listings and close on 1890 sales, just 5.8% lower than pre-bug conditions last year in  June.  That gusto and what me worried ?Alfred E. Neuman attitude  of buyers showed up as well in speed of sales with average days on the market running 31 days, albeit the all-time speed record was 26 days in April, as though a hurry-up drill to close those sales doors.  No doubt pendings will give an added lift here in July, but will potential sellers come out to take advantage of the dearth of listings and rising prices at the height of this season?
June 7th, 2020
PHOENIX RISIN' (?)
Out of the ashes of a self-induced economic slump that brought us Depression era unemployment rates of some 20%, comes statistical signs here in San Diego that this too shall pass.  Detached pending sales, always a harbinger of home sales to come, shot up in a trajectory not seen in normal times, depicted by this chart, up an amazing 59% in just one month. This happening on the heels of some woeful sales numbers for detached homes against last year at this time: 1220 sold, down 44%,  active listings down 41%, dollar volume, down 47% (putting the squeeze on local government revenue).  Sellers, not buyers, were deterred by the virus, as buyers jumped in: based on speed of sales, just 29 average days on the market, May's timing still  rivals with the best on record posted this April at 26 days.   While new listings are down 28% from last year, they too rose from the ashes, up 32% from just a month ago.  With the chart showing active listings limping along the same low line from December to now, there's plenty of elbow room for new sellers to enter this market.  Gauging by  a look at medium sold prices showing  only a miniscule gain of .9% over last year, waiting for greater gains at sale doesn't appear to be worth the wait.
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
May 1st, 2020
IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS (?)
While a far cry from media headlines throughout April,  Christmas data is here in San Diego real estate.  Yes, homeowners got yet another gift as the chart shows a new record high in detached median sales price, up 4.7% from last April to $683,000.  The pace of  sold detached sales was a staggering 28 average days on the market, beat only by one month going back in July of 2004 at 23 days, and sold price was 99.2% of list price, even with March for the best ever--  two more gifts to sellers.  The rest of the data definitely looks a lot like Christmas activity: new listings were down 42.2% at 2,845, but still higher than any December in the past.  Pendings, down 40.2% from April 2019, followed that same holiday season break, still hovering slightly above or below Decembers of 2018 and 2019, and sets the stage for more weak sales coming in May.  Active listings of 2872, down 38.8% from last year, are nearly identical to those of  Christmas, 2019.  In a tell-tale graph of something gone wrong,  it shows the number of sold properties in April historically rose well above prior months of that year, but took a sharp dive from March, dropping 20% in one month, and 32% below last April, and looking a lot like Christmas sales of the past.  While one might guess that buyers are reluctant to buy with business closures, the data shows buyers snatching up properties at a record pacing, with little negotiating on list price, and would-be sellers (with inventory bottoming out) most affected by the virus, possibly having  visions of masked men and women arriving at their doorstep,  potentially dropping off a virus that might kill them.  The good news is that more Americans died from the common flu in 2018 when no masks were required by law, and sales were 43% higher in April of 2018.   Buyers and agents are being allowed to see properties so the only restriction involves those wheel spinning open houses that make listing agents look busy.
  
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
April 7th, 2020
STORM BEFORE THE CALM (?)
While March detached sales are doing that characteristic thing, carrying the median sales price to new record heights at $680,000, up 8% from last year, and average days on the market (tied with record lows of just 30 days) would make any listing agent look good, several lead  bits of data for future sales are not following that characteristic historical script: pending sales are down 1,692, 18% less than this time last year, and active listing fell to lowest level in modern times at 2,872, down a whopping 36% from last March.  Will April showers*
bring May flowers?
 
*(now a viral deluge as mainstream media might describe, but will U.S. deaths match the 80,000 flu deaths in 2018 that happened with only a few news bulletins posted about the flu killing up to 4000/wk and zero suggestions about closings of anything, including home listing showings, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches during Holy Week, and the Orwellian Los Angeles  rule for neighbors snitching on neighbors)
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
March 8th 2020
 LEAP YEAR IN RARIFIED AIR (?)
Rare is it to expect all-time records to fall in February but it just happened as median sales price of detached homes rose 8.5% from last Feb to $678,000.  While many will say it is due to lower mortgage rates, which, on average, were lower by  less than 1/4% from December, the real action from rate declines should start for future sales as market rates have tumbled by over 1/2% in the early days of March from February's average (see Mortgage Report) !! No doubt the market nemesis is at play here, as active detached listings  touched down at a new record low of just 2,679, a whopping 40.1% decline from February 2019.  This inventory squeeze helped sellers get what they bargained for as the percent of selling   price to list price reached 98.3%, topped only by the peak season in July of 2013, when it became abundantly clear the bottom of the marketplace from the recession had come and gone.  Even sellers over $1,000,000 had there way with prices, as they got 95.8% of asking price, just shy of the all-time  best of 96.5% in 3/2017. This million+ category shows closed sales were up by 23.2% to 281, best February number on record. But the real stand-out figure says the best is yet to come.  By using the divining rod of pending sales, it shows a huge gain at 49.8% to 442, which will no doubt have March sales  beating out February closed sales of 281, up 23.2% from 2/2019.  Condo/attached follows similar patterns as detached with the median sales price topping all months heretofore at $450,000, up 9.4% from last year.
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
February 9th 2020
COLD WINTER SALES MEET UP WITH STORMY DEMAND (?)
It may be cold outside for San Diegans and called the "off-season" for home-buying, but that didn't stop buyers from pressing on to outbid their competition amid strikingly low volume of homes
-- so low it broke the record* with only 2,730 detached listings (and 40%  lower than last January).  Those conditions made for a 9.3% increase in the median sales price compared with last January, and uncharacteristically this season tied  the all-time record high that hit at the top of normal sales season in June of 2019 at $670,000.  Even sellers of properties above $1,000,000 saw their prices rise by 4.4%.  Pending sales in this category are up 33% with all detached up by 8.4% so this trend line should not stall out in February.  While homeowners can smile at this chart, imagine any corporation dealing with sales activity dropping by 40% from a year ago. So picture  those grueling sales meetings,  tabulating the efforts of tens of thousands of registered agents in San Diego, all getting grilled on their lousy performance that's down by 40% from last year.  If they have this chart in hand,  they shouldn't take it to heart.  
For frustrated would be buyers, the sun (and new listings) will come out tomorrow--and the cost of borrowing improved.   Get a jump on these by receiving an automated notice of new listings that fit your  search criteria, and receive large cash rebates that average $4000 when represented by Mesa Paciic.  
*(December active listings revised to 2,805, as all sales data is unofficial when previewed early)
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of December Data
January 4th 2020
NEW RECORD OF ILL REPUTE (?)
While homeowners can continue grinning ear to ear going into the new year with detached resale homes rising 6.7% from last December at $665,000 (dead even with November and that of the high-flying summer season of 8/2018),  the nemesis for would-be buyers  hit a new record low:  just 2,611 active listings, a whopping 39.8% below December last.  With all property types included, the chart illustrates the same new record low for this grouping  (4501, down 33%) in a County population of 1.24 million households according to 2018 census.   With so few active listings also in November (see 12/7 report), is it any wonder that closed detached sales (1,515)  barely gained over last December, and will likely put sales in a deep freeze in January?  Top this off with relatively few days on the market (38 days average) compared with past winter months,  it all adds up to favorable conditions for sellers to enter the market now.  
 
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of November  Data
December 7th, 2019
ANOTHER GRINCH NO SHOW
Many may wonder when the trend will shift and the market Grinch steals value away from happy homeowners, but that's not in the cards this Holiday season, as median sales prices rose 4.9% from this time last year to $665,000, just shy of the $670,000 all-time record in June 2019 (October price revised to $660k).  That might seem like a decline, but it has much to do with seasonal buying/selling habits (see example on  10/6 report).  While radio ads say the market is slowing and sellers need their expertise more than ever, the stats say average days on the market is 36 days (30 days historically is considered fast), and is faster than November of 2018.  Even homes above $1 million are cruising at 49 days, 9 days faster than 11/18, and compares well with the all-time record of 41 days  in June, 2018.  Pending sales, usually a harbinger of things to come, are at a decent level at 1652, 14% higher than last year (22% higher on $1mill+), but may  not be enough to move next months sales up, as active listings are down 37% from last year, with new listings dropping by 28%.  This continues the theme that San Diegans
find there's no place like home.
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of October Data
November 2nd, 2019
ANOTHER GOOD OMEN(?)
The unusually high pending sales last month (see report below) did turn out to be a good omen for prices, as the slight declines in median sales price for detached homes in August and September shot back up to $665,000.  This amounts to  a 3.3% increase over last year and not far from the all time record high in June of $670,000.  The chart shows various highs over the last 3 years starting at October 2016 where median prices were posted $106,000 lower.  What the charts show now for pendings is yet another sharp rise from last year by 23.4% to 2,029, turning the chart's downward direction of prior years on its head, so another good omen for homeowner values is likely ahead for next month.  The sad new record for buyers in search  is this October active listings are the lowest since the chart data was stored--from 2004.  With only 38 average days on the market, these are good clues for would-be sellers to take advantage of this unique situation--even in the so-called off-season.
 
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
October 6th, 2019
NUMBERS CAN BE ILLUSIVE( ?)
The first indication that detached median prices may be flat-lining showed up in April (see report below). Now both August and September show ever so slight declines with September -.6% from last year.  After vaulting to a new record high in June  on attached homes, prices stumbled badly in September, down 2.8% from September last, and this on 897 sales, increasing by 8% year-over-year, so go figure. Does that mean the price is falling from the June record of $440,000 or just a fall in the number of sales in higher priced categories?  Turns out that attached number of homes sold from $441k and up  dropped 20% from June's record in sales price, while the number of sales of lower priced homes stayed even, so it's just a numbers game when dealing with median figures.  As higher end sellers taper off going into the holiday season, charts always show prices sinking.  Still, overall trends aren't like they used to be rising 8-10% year-over-year, so the remaining flippers are turning into selling flipper concepts rather than the real estate itself (see next column).  Another figure not so illusive is the continual bogeyman for buyers: active listings on detached homes are down 24% from last September, making for slim pickings and fast paced sales that average just 35 days on the market (49 days on those above $1,000,000 where buyers always thin out at this altitude).  Buyers do get a reprieve on rising mortgage costs, which may be the reason why sold sales are up 11% from last year and October sales look bright with pending sales up 21%, 61% higher than rock bottom back in December 2018.  That kind of activity should push prices back on the upside for October. 
September 7th, 2019
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of August Data
 A NEW RECORD HIGH ABUTS CHANGING TIDE FOR DETACHED SALES (?)
While detached median home prices inched upward in July to call it a positive move, unofficial reports say such is not the case for August sales at $660,000, down .8% from last year.  Looking for bright spots, sales above $1,000,000 posted gains of 1.3% over last year and attached homes in June reached a new record high of $440,000, up 3.50% from last year.  Active detached listings, down 20.5% from last year, continue to answer that question for San Diego homeowners: where do we go from here?   With just 2.5 months supply, buyers don't get a whole lot of choices when 6 months is considered a normal market.  But  they are still picking them off at a decent pace of just 36 days on the market.  Homes for sale above $1,000,000 do come close to normal with some 5.6 months of supply.  That may be why, at these loftier prices, seller get less (4.2%) than what they asked for than compared with the rest of the market at 2.6%.  Sold homes in August is nothing to write home about, down 7.7% from last year, but current pendings, slumping in June, are up 10% higher now, and 17.9% from 8-18, so seasonal late-comers should help make September sales shine.
July, 14th, 2019
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview June Data
NO JUNE GLOOM FOR SELLERS IN A SELLER'S MARKET
It's not often that one sees an all-time new high register, but it did (unofficially) here in June with median sales price on detached homes reaching terrain never witnessed before at $671,000, up 2.6% from last June, and  topping August  all-time record of 2018 at $665,000. Sales sped along at a brisk pace of just 31 days on the market, with sold prices averaging 98% of list price. The only thing that continues to dog the market are number of sales at 1935, down 13.9% from last year and lower than a month ago by 11%. Active listings are down 2.8% from a year ago. So with  supply of homes on the market remaining low at 2.8 months, it all adds up to the continuation of a lengthy seller's market.
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