San Diego Real Estate Trends

RESIDENTIAL SALE TRENDS~ 
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of May Sales Data
June 7th, 2020
PHOENIX RISIN' (?)
Out of the ashes of a self-induced economic slump that brought us Depression era unemployment rates of some 20%, comes statistical signs here in San Diego that this too shall pass.  Detached pending sales, always a harbinger of home sales to come, shot up in a trajectory not seen in normal times, depicted by this chart, up an amazing 59% in just one month. This happening on the heels of some woeful sales numbers for detached homes against last year at this time: 1220 sold, down 44%,  active listings down 41%, dollar volume, down 47% (putting the squeeze on local government revenue).  Sellers, not buyers, were deterred by the virus, as buyers jumped in: based on speed of sales, just 29 average days on the market, May's timing still  rivals with the best on record posted this April at 26 days.   While new listings are down 28% from last year, they too rose from the ashes, up 32% from just a month ago.  With the chart showing active listings limping along the same low line from December to now, there's plenty of elbow room for new sellers to enter this market.  Gauging by  a look at medium sold prices showing  only a miniscule gain of .9% over last year, waiting for greater gains at sale doesn't appear to be worth the wait.
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
May 1st, 2020
IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS (?)
While a far cry from media headlines throughout April,  Christmas data is here in San Diego real estate.  Yes, homeowners got yet another gift as the chart shows a new record high in detached median sales price, up 4.7% from last April to $683,000.  The pace of  sold detached sales was a staggering 28 average days on the market, beat only by one month going back in July of 2004 at 23 days, and sold price was 99.2% of list price, even with March for the best ever--  two more gifts to sellers.  The rest of the data definitely looks a lot like Christmas activity: new listings were down 42.2% at 2,845, but still higher than any December in the past.  Pendings, down 40.2% from April 2019, followed that same holiday season break, still hovering slightly above or below Decembers of 2018 and 2019, and sets the stage for more weak sales coming in May.  Active listings of 2872, down 38.8% from last year, are nearly identical to those of  Christmas, 2019.  In a tell-tale graph of something gone wrong,  it shows the number of sold properties in April historically rose well above prior months of that year, but took a sharp dive from March, dropping 20% in one month, and 32% below last April, and looking a lot like Christmas sales of the past.  While one might guess that buyers are reluctant to buy with business closures, the data shows buyers snatching up properties at a record pacing, with little negotiating on list price, and would-be sellers (with inventory bottoming out) most affected by the virus, possibly having  visions of masked men and women arriving at their doorstep,  potentially dropping off a virus that might kill them.  The good news is that more Americans died from the common flu in 2018 when no masks were required by law, and sales were 43% higher in April of 2018.   Buyers and agents are being allowed to see properties so the only restriction involves those wheel spinning open houses that make listing agents look busy.
  
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
April 7th, 2020
STORM BEFORE THE CALM (?)
While March detached sales are doing that characteristic thing, carrying the median sales price to new record heights at $680,000, up 8% from last year, and average days on the market (tied with record lows of just 30 days) would make any listing agent look good, several lead  bits of data for future sales are not following that characteristic historical script: pending sales are down 1,692, 18% less than this time last year, and active listing fell to lowest level in modern times at 2,872, down a whopping 36% from last March.  Will April showers*
bring May flowers?
 
*(now a viral deluge as mainstream media might describe, but will U.S. deaths match the 80,000 flu deaths in 2018 that happened with only a few news bulletins posted about the flu killing up to 4000/wk and zero suggestions about closings of anything, including home listing showings, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches during Holy Week, and the Orwellian Los Angeles  rule for neighbors snitching on neighbors)
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
March 8th 2020
 LEAP YEAR IN RARIFIED AIR (?)
Rare is it to expect all-time records to fall in February but it just happened as median sales price of detached homes rose 8.5% from last Feb to $678,000.  While many will say it is due to lower mortgage rates, which, on average, were lower by  less than 1/4% from December, the real action from rate declines should start for future sales as market rates have tumbled by over 1/2% in the early days of March from February's average (see Mortgage Report) !! No doubt the market nemesis is at play here, as active detached listings  touched down at a new record low of just 2,679, a whopping 40.1% decline from February 2019.  This inventory squeeze helped sellers get what they bargained for as the percent of selling   price to list price reached 98.3%, topped only by the peak season in July of 2013, when it became abundantly clear the bottom of the marketplace from the recession had come and gone.  Even sellers over $1,000,000 had there way with prices, as they got 95.8% of asking price, just shy of the all-time  best of 96.5% in 3/2017. This million+ category shows closed sales were up by 23.2% to 281, best February number on record. But the real stand-out figure says the best is yet to come.  By using the divining rod of pending sales, it shows a huge gain at 49.8% to 442, which will no doubt have March sales  beating out February closed sales of 281, up 23.2% from 2/2019.  Condo/attached follows similar patterns as detached with the median sales price topping all months heretofore at $450,000, up 9.4% from last year.
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
February 9th 2020
COLD WINTER SALES MEET UP WITH STORMY DEMAND (?)
It may be cold outside for San Diegans and called the "off-season" for home-buying, but that didn't stop buyers from pressing on to outbid their competition amid strikingly low volume of homes
-- so low it broke the record* with only 2,730 detached listings (and 40%  lower than last January).  Those conditions made for a 9.3% increase in the median sales price compared with last January, and uncharacteristically this season tied  the all-time record high that hit at the top of normal sales season in June of 2019 at $670,000.  Even sellers of properties above $1,000,000 saw their prices rise by 4.4%.  Pending sales in this category are up 33% with all detached up by 8.4% so this trend line should not stall out in February.  While homeowners can smile at this chart, imagine any corporation dealing with sales activity dropping by 40% from a year ago. So picture  those grueling sales meetings,  tabulating the efforts of tens of thousands of registered agents in San Diego, all getting grilled on their lousy performance that's down by 40% from last year.  If they have this chart in hand,  they shouldn't take it to heart.  
For frustrated would be buyers, the sun (and new listings) will come out tomorrow--and the cost of borrowing improved.   Get a jump on these by receiving an automated notice of new listings that fit your  search criteria, and receive large cash rebates that average $4000 when represented by Mesa Paciic.  
*(December active listings revised to 2,805, as all sales data is unofficial when previewed early)
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of December Data
January 4th 2020
NEW RECORD OF ILL REPUTE (?)
While homeowners can continue grinning ear to ear going into the new year with detached resale homes rising 6.7% from last December at $665,000 (dead even with November and that of the high-flying summer season of 8/2018),  the nemesis for would-be buyers  hit a new record low:  just 2,611 active listings, a whopping 39.8% below December last.  With all property types included, the chart illustrates the same new record low for this grouping  (4501, down 33%) in a County population of 1.24 million households according to 2018 census.   With so few active listings also in November (see 12/7 report), is it any wonder that closed detached sales (1,515)  barely gained over last December, and will likely put sales in a deep freeze in January?  Top this off with relatively few days on the market (38 days average) compared with past winter months,  it all adds up to favorable conditions for sellers to enter the market now.  
 
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of November  Data
December 7th, 2019
ANOTHER GRINCH NO SHOW
Many may wonder when the trend will shift and the market Grinch steals value away from happy homeowners, but that's not in the cards this Holiday season, as median sales prices rose 4.9% from this time last year to $665,000, just shy of the $670,000 all-time record in June 2019 (October price revised to $660k).  That might seem like a decline, but it has much to do with seasonal buying/selling habits (see example on  10/6 report).  While radio ads say the market is slowing and sellers need their expertise more than ever, the stats say average days on the market is 36 days (30 days historically is considered fast), and is faster than November of 2018.  Even homes above $1 million are cruising at 49 days, 9 days faster than 11/18, and compares well with the all-time record of 41 days  in June, 2018.  Pending sales, usually a harbinger of things to come, are at a decent level at 1652, 14% higher than last year (22% higher on $1mill+), but may  not be enough to move next months sales up, as active listings are down 37% from last year, with new listings dropping by 28%.  This continues the theme that San Diegans
find there's no place like home.
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of October Data
November 2nd, 2019
ANOTHER GOOD OMEN(?)
The unusually high pending sales last month (see report below) did turn out to be a good omen for prices, as the slight declines in median sales price for detached homes in August and September shot back up to $665,000.  This amounts to  a 3.3% increase over last year and not far from the all time record high in June of $670,000.  The chart shows various highs over the last 3 years starting at October 2016 where median prices were posted $106,000 lower.  What the charts show now for pendings is yet another sharp rise from last year by 23.4% to 2,029, turning the chart's downward direction of prior years on its head, so another good omen for homeowner values is likely ahead for next month.  The sad new record for buyers in search  is this October active listings are the lowest since the chart data was stored--from 2004.  With only 38 average days on the market, these are good clues for would-be sellers to take advantage of this unique situation--even in the so-called off-season.
 
For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.
(All data is unofficial and subject to change)
 
October 6th, 2019
NUMBERS CAN BE ILLUSIVE( ?)
The first indication that detached median prices may be flat-lining showed up in April (see report below). Now both August and September show ever so slight declines with September -.6% from last year.  After vaulting to a new record high in June  on attached homes, prices stumbled badly in September, down 2.8% from September last, and this on 897 sales, increasing by 8% year-over-year, so go figure. Does that mean the price is falling from the June record of $440,000 or just a fall in the number of sales in higher priced categories?  Turns out that attached number of homes sold from $441k and up  dropped 20% from June's record in sales price, while the number of sales of lower priced homes stayed even, so it's just a numbers game when dealing with median figures.  As higher end sellers taper off going into the holiday season, charts always show prices sinking.  Still, overall trends aren't like they used to be rising 8-10% year-over-year, so the remaining flippers are turning into selling flipper concepts rather than the real estate itself (see next column).  Another figure not so illusive is the continual bogeyman for buyers: active listings on detached homes are down 24% from last September, making for slim pickings and fast paced sales that average just 35 days on the market (49 days on those above $1,000,000 where buyers always thin out at this altitude).  Buyers do get a reprieve on rising mortgage costs, which may be the reason why sold sales are up 11% from last year and October sales look bright with pending sales up 21%, 61% higher than rock bottom back in December 2018.  That kind of activity should push prices back on the upside for October. 
September 7th, 2019
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of August Data
 A NEW RECORD HIGH ABUTS CHANGING TIDE FOR DETACHED SALES (?)
While detached median home prices inched upward in July to call it a positive move, unofficial reports say such is not the case for August sales at $660,000, down .8% from last year.  Looking for bright spots, sales above $1,000,000 posted gains of 1.3% over last year and attached homes in June reached a new record high of $440,000, up 3.50% from last year.  Active detached listings, down 20.5% from last year, continue to answer that question for San Diego homeowners: where do we go from here?   With just 2.5 months supply, buyers don't get a whole lot of choices when 6 months is considered a normal market.  But  they are still picking them off at a decent pace of just 36 days on the market.  Homes for sale above $1,000,000 do come close to normal with some 5.6 months of supply.  That may be why, at these loftier prices, seller get less (4.2%) than what they asked for than compared with the rest of the market at 2.6%.  Sold homes in August is nothing to write home about, down 7.7% from last year, but current pendings, slumping in June, are up 10% higher now, and 17.9% from 8-18, so seasonal late-comers should help make September sales shine.
July, 14th, 2019
San Diego Market- Sneak Preview June Data
NO JUNE GLOOM FOR SELLERS IN A SELLER'S MARKET
It's not often that one sees an all-time new high register, but it did (unofficially) here in June with median sales price on detached homes reaching terrain never witnessed before at $671,000, up 2.6% from last June, and  topping August  all-time record of 2018 at $665,000. Sales sped along at a brisk pace of just 31 days on the market, with sold prices averaging 98% of list price. The only thing that continues to dog the market are number of sales at 1935, down 13.9% from last year and lower than a month ago by 11%. Active listings are down 2.8% from a year ago. So with  supply of homes on the market remaining low at 2.8 months, it all adds up to the continuation of a lengthy seller's market.
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