San Diego Real Estate Trends

RESIDENTIAL SALE TRENDS~ 

San Diego Market- Sneak Preview of

September Trends

09/26/2022

MARKET HITTING THE BRAKES?

A simple graph of current active listings tells the tale, as average days on market zoom past those traditionally slow months of January, shooting up from 28 days last month to 55 today.  Sellers that need to sell will likely need to lower the asking price to get moving.  With mortgage rates continually on the rise, trends won't be reversing anytime soon.  09-03-2022

August Sales

09/03/2022

NO RECESSION IN S.D. SALES DATA

San Diego skipped a recession back in the early1990's due to a variety of industries based here, (government defense and subcontractors, bio-med, technology companies, etc, and the latest sales data seems to reflect a buoyant market of buyers, not impacted by layoffs and rising mortage rates--just yet.  Both median and average sales prices continue to stay ahead of last year at this time, both 7% higher at $910k and $1.20mil respectively. However, the charts show both took an early turn south this Summer, and that $1,000,000 median price marker in April will no doubt remain tops for 2022 as will the average s/p of $1,342,000 in May.  This doesn't necessarily mean a home purchased in May is worth less today, but the bidding frenzy reflected in this chart on contract price to listed price that reached an all-time high in April could have something to do with all-time highs in sales prices, putting a special premium on some bought back then.  The market has now settled back closer to normal s/p to list of around 96%, but still doing so fairly swiftly with average days on market of 28.  Pending sales might be down 31% from last year, but at 1,612, if they survive the recent rate hikes, will help push closed sales numbers in September.  While the number of sold prices are still tracking in those slow Winter months of the past, volume of sales at $2.463 billion from these high-flying prices   keeps the tax assessor's office smiling. 

For a list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $5,000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​. 

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

July Sales

CHRISTMAS IN JULY?

While average and median sales prices ($1.262 mil +9% over last July, and $969k a 10.7% increase respectively) are those gifts that keep on giving to sellers and homeowners in general, agents feel the chill of Winter months closing in on them.  For instance, if sales were down by 43% from last year at the height of the sales season, managers would frown, as no company or industry could cheer.  Even at these high sales prices, the volume of sales is down 37.7% from year's last, and pending sales look a lot like past winters.  Granted this is not a stumbling market, even with mortgage rate increases (albeit a sudden mortgage gift by the Fed to augment sales-see left column) as buyers still swoop in with speed, as average days on the market registered a speedy 23, but not without bartering on the price.   Suddenly, instead of bidding an average of 6% over list in April, the figure has dropped closer to normal at slightly less than list price.  More sellers have decided to grab this gift while the gettin's good, as there are now 3,428 active listings, up 24.5% from last July.  This naturally would help reverse sales trends for September-October.   Chart A, # of sold is down 43.3% from last July and resembles all along past January levels (save 4-20 when market traumatized), Chart B Pending sales at 1,449 down 34.3%, much like past winter levels, and completely unlike the typical highs of Summer sales. Home-builders across the nation could hardly find any comfort in the latest trends as their inventory is rising along with the inflationary cost to build, which puts a big squeeze on future profitable projects.  For San Diegans, it appears that record for the median sales price value in April at $1,000,000 will stay intact for some time to come.

June Sales

07-03-2022

HOTTER THAN THE 4TH OF JULY?

All things considered, sales in June showed remarkable resiliency to mortgage rate increases, albeit 19% of the 1591 sold were cash sales totaling nearly one-half billion in sales volume, with average sales price of $1,628.423 (that's a heap of dough!).  Sadly, total sales were 38% less than last June and chart seems to indicate it's downhill from here. Though more sellers are sensing it's a good time to sell with 23% more active listings standing at 2,998, pending sales at 1,418 won't be uplifting to sold data in July with 41.6% fewer than last June preparing to close in July.  Days on the market stood on average at 20, still hotter than most years where 30 back a decade or so ago was considered fast.  Average sales price took a slight downward turn at $1,297,000 from May's all-time record of $1,342,000 and that million-dollar marker set in April (see 5-01-22 Report below) remains the tops in the median sales data, but only slightly from June's $995,000 mark, but still 13.7% higher than June of 2021. This hot data seems poised to cool after the 4th of July celebration, considering active list prices have been lowered in many areas, frustrating supply bottlenecks, and some whiffs stagflation beginning to enter the economic arena.

06/05/2022

May Sales

OVERCOMING THE ODDS

While the median sales price didn't make it over that high hurdle mark of $1,000,000 set last month, it came a close 2nd at $990,000.  That other featured stat last month of a 13% drop in pending sales in just one month, got a reprieve by reversing the fall from 1829 to 1865, yet still down 22% from May of 2021, due of course to that sharp rise in mortgage rates by 1% in April.  Like hitting snake eyes twice, the average price this month at $1,351,650 and last 2 months were less that $1,000 apart ($342 off April's), giving the chart that straight line look. This a numerical feat only matched by last month's median s/p with exactly 6 zeros behind a one.  Sellers have finally awakened to the call, possibly having visions of the future (see Market Sixth Sense below), as active listing finally turned north, taking us from a rock bottom record of a two week supply in 12/2021  to slightly over one month now.

Odds were against a buyer line-up after these rate hikes but the stats say buyers bid up list price by 4.7% and didn't wait around as average days on the market at 18 is still near all-time highs.  How well this market navigates over the decisions and dilemma facing the Feds as outlined in the Mortgage Report  will be what odds-makers live for.

April Sales

05/01/2022

MILLION DOLLAR MARKER: A TOUGH ACT TO FOLLOW?

Median sales price represents the mid-point of sales at any given time.  So imagine if the mid-point is $1,000,000.  Imagine no more as that is the latest sales data number for detached homes in San Diego County, up 19.1% from last year and a new record high.  Buyers were still breaking the all-time record for making offers 7% on average above list price, helping lift market prices once again  to an oddly even figure of $1,000,000.  While that eye-popping number doesn't suggest higher interest rates put a dent in sales, several areas do reflect a negative effect: pending sales chart shows a drop of 19% from April last year, and down to 1,858 from March's 2,143. a whopping 13% decline in one month,  uncharacteristic  in Spring annual cycles outside of April, 2020 during pandemic fright, which plunged to 1,307.  Then we have sold detached chart, which never turn south in April (2020 being the exception), took a turn for the worse at 1,844, down 21% from last year,  and down 5.8% below March numbers.  Now this one month big-time drop in pending sales  was occurring during the latest 1%  run-up in mortgage rates over the last 30 days (see 05/01/2022 report in left column), while closed sales involved  mortgage rates already locked into March levels- thus a lesser impact than what we likely will see in future sales.  This new record marker is going to be a tough act to follow, it would seem.  

04/03/2022

March Sales

PANIC BUYING ROCKETS PRICES

The overused March madness theme still has a place here in last month's sales action in San Diego County by just reviewing the almost surreal scoring stats.  The charts on the median and average sales prices since December have that look of a rocket launch, with average prices of detached home skyrocketing 22% just from December and up 29.1% from last year at this time, hitting a new record high of $1,359,350 and median price of $980,000.  Buyers snapped up properties in near record time (19 days on the market) and bid over the asking price on average by 6.6%, another record.  Active listings are still in the tank at 1123, 42.6% below last year, leaving the cupboards looking nearly bare at 2 weeks supply.  Pendings of 2129 and 1814 sold in the month help make that number shrink all the more.  Of course, the fuel of record low mortgage rates providing the propellant for this rocket launch trajectory has gotten weaker when one considers interest rates have increased by 1.50% since the start of the year and half of that happened in last 30 days. That's a payment INCREASE of $2000/mo. on a $600,000 loan or an increase of $1860/mo. from 30 days ago.  How many current pendings will get negatively affected by that and for sales going forward in April?

February Sales

March 5th, 2022

MARKET SIXTH SENSE ?

While everything is turning up rosy for homeowners who had that common sense to buy a home years ago, including that rose of yet another record high in both median and average sales prices, a whopping $915,000  (18.1% year-over-year increase) and $1,262,360 (21.4% increase) respectively,  the lingering question is why have so many of the potential sellers, that are typically present in these annual cycles, disappeared from the market, and decided to stay put.   While record low inventory here at just two week's supply as depicted on this historical chart for detached homes, can't really get much lower than this, the trend is not unique as much of the nation also is heading in the same low inventory affliction.   Looking at the historical active listing charts on all property types we see it wasn't the fear of the pandemic that began in March 2020 that started this trend, which most analysts suggest, as it began in earnest back in September of 2018, not just with detached homes, but all home types.  The economy had the highest GDP per capita in 2018-2019, so economic fundamentals were good. Comparing February active listings beginning in 2019, there were 13,389, which magically dropped to 5,625 in February, 2020 before the pandemic. That's a 58% annual decline.  A year later during the height of the fear, the count was down to  3,456, a 38.6% annual decline, and now whittled down to 1,867 units of all types, a 46% annual decline.  There are those who believe in psychic abilities in mass and one individual built a software that sorts internet wording and activities of millions of people that allow him to predict future behavior, at least as far as public moods go, so is this sixth sense at play here? 

 

 Use all of your senses and pick a company with steep discounts to sellers, rebates to buyers, and mortgage prices below all others by calling Mesa Pacific today and compare. 

January Sales.

February 5th 2022

HIDDEN MYSTERIES OF THE MARKET?

It's another celebration for homeowners as the median sales price of detached homes broke new higher ground at $855,000, a 19.4% increase from last year, and edging out June-July all-time highs by $10,000.  Same deal with the chart on average price gains of 18.9% from last year and new record of $1,190,250.  Sadly, for buyers in the hunt and the thinning ranks of some 20,000+  R.E. agents, active detached listing shows shrinkage once again to a new record low.  This phenomenon is not isolated to San Diego County as the chart for L.A. County, 3 times the population size of S.D., shows similar declines of 66% since January of 2018.  Riverside chart shows the exact same rate of decline, going from 5,746 to 1929 in same time period. How weird is that?  Orange County hit rock bottom at just 870 in December, with January decline from January of 2018 at 73%.  San Diego tops the decline from same period by 87%.  But weirder still is the mystery that shows up in this chart where active listings in S.D. collapsed by a whopping 43% in just 2 months (wIth no surge in sales), in the prime of the season starting July 2019, AND 7 months before the pandemic outbreak.

January 8th 2022

FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS? IT TOLLS FOR THEE BUYERS IN JANUARY 

Yep.  Based on the latest data, the shelves are virtually empty this January of SFR detached homes in all of San Diego County in the category once called Active Listings.  As the chart suggests, it's hit a rock bottom low for these charts* dating to 2004 to just 914 properties.  That adds up to another all-time low as this chart will show of a scant 12 days of inventory, down a whopping 60% from December last (a 6 month supply was considered to be  a healthy balance).  Unless these multiple listing machines are busted, it's far worse in L.A. County, three times the population of San Diego County, where active SFR detached  listings per their CRMLS is a tiny 1,273.  A city where you would expect sellers to be fleeing, and more populated than our County, shows 248 active listings in the City of Los Angeles (?)   Homeowners should be grinning ear to ear as values hold up at near record levels.  At $850,000 medium price, and 14% above this time last year, it's within earshot of the record tied in June and July of $875,000.  Similar, but larger figures are reserved for the average sales price of $1.115 million, up 14.5% from December 2020, and slightly lower than the all-time high of $1.176 million registered in June 2021.  Sellers of SFR detached, got what they wanted, and then some as percentage of list price to sold was an extra 2%, compared with  the  record of an extra 4.9% above list price was achieved last June.  The number of sold homes at 1,881 is 15.5% lower than 12/20, while pendings will be giving no aid to lift sold data in January as they  too are down 13%.  The bell does seem to be tolling for buyers this Winter. Even the condo market is depressed with just 430 active listings.  Perhaps the best thing for home buying shoppers is to hold off until the Spring and hope inventory shelves get replenished. 

 

*(all S.D. data from  SDMLSA but will verify with local offices this coming week

on this Southland listing phenomena) 

 November 5th, 2021

THERE SHE BREACHES!

Any wonder that sale prices have been  back to double digit increases from last year when we see real inflation doing the same (see 10-18 report in right column)?  The standout gain and a chart that could be framed was  average sales price of a detached home, breaching at an all-time record high of $1,178,193, up 14.6% from October last as is the median price of $862,495.  Sellers are still getting prices above list price (101.3%) as buyers continue rushing the purchase gates with average days on the market still extremely low at 22.  As the chart shows, one infamous new record going back to 2004 is the number of active listings at just 1,723.  Sold (2,024)and pending sales (2044) are almost identical and a guide to November closures.  December is an open book with sales hoping to dodge the potential of a global debt bond explosion (see 10-18-21 article in left column). 

 

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

August Sales

A BREAK IN THE BREAKING OF RECORDS (?)

While the median sales price for SFR detached was up 15.6% from last year at $854,000, it faltered a bit from July's all-time record high at $875,000

June Sales Data

07/04/2021

LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, RECORDS BREAK AGAIN~

A common measurement in home statistics over the decades is called Months of Supply, or how many months it would take to sell existing inventory.  San Diego just eclipsed that measurement to days of supply of just 27 days.  When 6 months supply was once considered a healthy balance and offered many opportunities for buyers to pick and choose, and negotiate price, that world has disappeared for now.  The chart shows .9 months supply, and the decline started in earnest in August 2019, well before any viral fears.  While San Diego is definitely in the lead in this category,  nationwide this chart shows similar trends, dropping from 4.5 months in May 2020 to 2.5 May 2021.    With the same frustrated bidders out in force again this month,  negotiations on price hit a new record of 5% over list price in what is nothing short of intense bidding war for available properties.   All that action naturally created yet another record in median sales price at $878,750, up just like last month by 29.2%  from June of 2020.  Up even higher by 35.3% is the average sales price of $1,180,152, assisted by the fact that 40% of  all detached sales were over $1,000,000.  This should hold up for next month as pending sales in this category are up 46% from last June to 806 homes.  After the hiatus in sales following the initial viral fears where May 2020 recorded a dismal 1,328 detached sold,  the latest data shows nearly a doubling of closed sales to a normal level  of 2,474, 20% higher than June of 2020. The bogeyman for the market is again, plummeting active listings as show in the chart.

Condo and other attached sellers were having a good time as well, with median sales price up 21.4% to a new record of $550,000.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, or how our "no cost listing program" works, contact Mesa Pacific today.   

 

May Sales Data

06/02/2021

HOMEOWNERS PLANT THE FLAG

When should a chart named ACTIVE LISTINGS be changed to INACTIVE? When you see a chart that looks like this.  Descending to the lowest of lows (at least since 2004) and this happening in what would normally be considered the height of listing period.  If 1651 is now the new normal when 9500-10,000 is typical for May,  then the industry is in big trouble.  Not so says the County government, where all sales volume had back-to-back records that totaled $6.88 billion, and roughly translates to property tax revenues of $82,000,000.  This volume relates to  sales prices where records were broken again, with chart showing median sales price of detached homes zooming to $875,000, an 18% climb from just 5 months ago, and a whopping 30% from May-June 2020.  One might think the exceedingly low active listing is because they went so fast, which is true in that a new record in Days on Market was set at a mere 20 days, amidst intense bidding wars that drove prices on average of 4.7% higher than list price, yet another record set here.   But add up pending sales of 2,391 and sold of 2071 with active listings, and they only total 6,113, well short of even typical active listings of 9,500-10,000.  So where have all the would-be sellers gone?  The decline began well before the COVID scare.  Is San Diego simply THE PLACE to stay put and no significant construction to entice home-owners to move on up?

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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 March Sales Data

04/24/2021

ARE SELLERS TIRED OF WINNING ?

The records shattered in March say sellers are winning at every level while it should be  buyers who are growing tired, standing in line of a bidding war.  All-time Record #1 as chart depicts: 20.8% increase in sales price over last year to $810,000, making all home-owners very happy indeed.   Record  #2 Percent sales price to listing at new high of 103.3%.  All-time Record #3: Days on market to all time low of 21 days, 32%  lower than last year.  these few stats suggest housing sales on fire.  However, one record remaining says it's not that rosy of a picture: All-time record #4 is active listings down a whopping 59.7% below April of last year, and during height of COVID scare.  So assume same amount of buyers looking each month over last several years but now faced  with inventory sliced down to the bone, and a dog fight naturally  ensues.    Pending sales of 2306, up 39.8% from same time-period last year, shows more of the same good fortunes to come for sellers by this month's end.

 

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

February Sales Data 

03/01/2021

RECORD BREAKING ONE-UPMANSHIP?

If there is one sales marketing tool that will be stated over and over again in every brokerage company this month, it will be:  "Sold Over Listing Price."  Whether by design of listing low to create more buyer bidding or just the forces of the market can't be told by this record-breaking chart on Sales Percent To Original Listing (note it's the first time average bids were 101.4% of list price) but  recording breaking median sales prices on detached homes, plus near-record lows of 27 days on the market, do.  Just when you thought 6% annual price increases or less were the new norm, up pops a 15.6% increase from last year and new record high of $780,000.   If following the averages, that figure is up a whopping 24% to $1,055,908--and all of this before Spring has officially sprung.  Buyers may have been  sensing the cheapest mortgage prices may not last (and they are right judging by latest activity in the bond market-see adjacent column on this), so bidding up the price to fend off competitors is the story of the last couple of months.  Add to this buyer frustration is the continued lack of inventory, where the term "Active" listing is almost oxymoronic and as the chart demonstrates, is down to an all-time record low of 1419, 63% lower than this time last year.  This story should wake potential sellers up as there is no greener light like this. 

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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02/06/2021

 IT'S UNBELIEVABLE

 One would think someone cooked the books with numbers like these,  Not only were sales moving faster back to back  in December and now January at a pace  just a few days shy of the all-time speed of 24 days on the market in 2004, but it happened in the dead of Winter,  as the chart shows is notoriously the slowest time of every year since 2004.   In another stunning bit of data for detached homes, is the category of what used to be called Active sales, which careened off the chart, falling an astounding 60.5% from last January to the lowest level recorded since these charts were tracked in 2004. While the chart on the number of sold homes would impress astrologists and reads like a well-scripted storyline for each and every January, hitting rock bottom at the start of the year,  sales are nevertheless riding on a much higher plane  over last 7 years than the years prior to that.  Pending sales at 1769 will pretty much guarantee February charts will turn the tide upward as usual, but what the chart shows as the unusual was April-May, 2020 sales that took a nosedive due to the big V.  Median sales prices are holding the line near the record top of the  charts, but the average price is one that will be remembered at $1,006,000, up 17% from last year.  So while sold home numbers don't impress,  dollar volume at $1.8b, UP 51% from last January, certainly  keeps the tax assessors smiling.   All in all,  potential home sellers, with few competitors, are either still afraid to go outside of nothing more than a serious bout with the flu, or content as cows grazing at home sweet home in San Diego's rich grasslands.  

12/06/2020

FEARLESS WARRIOR BUYERS ?

While potential sellers may be sheepish about masked buyers  traipsing through their homes, visualizing  trails of coronavirus in their wake (considering active listings are down 52% from last November), buyers thought otherwise, as detached sales rose 20% from November  2019, back when the air was free and clear of these bugs that are so small (10 times smaller than bacteria and about as deadly as influenza), that they pass right through the best masks like a basketball through a hula hoop.  Put these last 3 month sales back to back with sales of Sept-Oct-Nov of 2019, and the increases of 1,422 nearly made up for the lost sales during the height of Pandemic fears of March, April, and May.  While prices tend to usually dip in this off-season, this price chart  shows the surge from buyers is keeping prices at their record lofty levels with median price for detached remaining at $750,000.

 

October 13, 2020

 PANDEMIC YOU SAY? 

Buyers apparently voted with their feet  about pandemic fears, as detached sales jumped to 2475, a whopping 31% higher than last September, and only beaten slightly by 6 past seasons since 2004.

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September 9th, 2020

ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RECORD

San Diego homeowners may get tired of winning each and every month, climbing to new record highs like detached homes did in August, up 14% from a year ago and now at median price of $750,000.  But how about a new record high that's up 31% from last year?  That one belongs to manufactured and mobile home sales hitting $200,000 in median sales price, a whopping jump in price of 41% from last month.  Granted,  only 111 total sales does skew those gains, but it's a decent gain and way for young to get a foothold into the market (provided they own the land beneath the unit), or elders seeking retirement without a horsey mortgage payment.  Buyers/ owner-builders of manufactured homes should know that appraisers must use sales of other manufactured homes for comps so you get what you paid for (plus or minus  the amount what others paid recently).   A so-called stick built home cost more but your value is riding higher with other similar built homes.  So the trick is to weigh the  current resale market value  of each and the cost differential to build, and plug in value increase of say 2-3% per year over 10 years, and figure equity of each less cost of ownership.    What some novice buyers of mobile homes don't realize, once the land lease is up and the owners decide to build that hotel/motel on the greens, they have to pick up their depreciated unit and move on--likely to loftier land leases, and really didn't get ahead financially over time--and maybe fell behind the inflation eight ball.   Fixing as much of your housing expense now is the goal, as inflation may hit renters the hardest each time the lease is renewed in future years.

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

 

August 4th, 2020

STOP THE PRESSES!

What's the most surprising economic data to come out of a so-called global pandemic that 's still growing in cases, but shrinking in rates of death here in the U.S.?  Outside of the fact that total  deaths in 2020 will have to play catch up to 2017 and 2018 levels that averaged 2,826,000 , is that median sales prices here in San Diego  just shot up 11.4% higher than  July of 2019.  Now if one wants a really bold news flash number, it's  $946,000,  the average sales price of detached homes, a new record high  and  a whopping 14.2% higher than July of 2019.  Still, the median price is what is normally  tracked and that is $730,000 (half the sales above this figure and half below it), and that's the  11.4% increase that is still amazing in a market that used to see these bold increases, but started to settle in just above inflation levels.   It's pretty obvious that the higher price homes are revving things up and sure enough,   that's where the increases are happening.  While sales prices are not jumping here, the number of sales are, pushing up the averages and median prices:  sales above $1,000,000 increased by 42%, and that's going to happen all over again next month as pendings at this altitude are up 65% from last year.  Down where the  rest of us reside below that $1mil hashmark, overall sales of detached homes rose  out of the ashes of viral scares in May by some 60% ,from  a paltry 949, to 1519. in July.  Every chart takes  flight from May lows, except active listings, which had been a systemic problem well before the pandemic.  No doubt record low interest rates keep buyers actively bidding on rising prices, and this drove buyers to pay, on average, 99% of asking prices, near a new record.  Will  would-be sellers come out to play their hand at the height of the season?  Buyers appear likely to deal.  

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

July 11th, 2020

PENDINGS KEEP ON RISIN' AND SO DO PRICES

While pending sales keep last month's theme alive, shooting up in the charts, and now up 92.5% from April's fright, another chart quietly shows a new record high for median sales prices for detached homes at $686,000.

While it is apparent potential sellers tried to keep the bug outdoors by  not listing their homes  (2616 active, down 49% from last year)  that didn't stop buyers from going door-to-door after available listings and close on 1890 sales, just 5.8% lower than pre-bug conditions last year in  June.  That gusto and what me worried ?Alfred E. Neuman attitude  of buyers showed up as well in speed of sales with average days on the market running 31 days, albeit the all-time speed record was 26 days in April, as though a hurry-up drill to close those sales doors.  No doubt pendings will give an added lift here in July, but will potential sellers come out to take advantage of the dearth of listings and rising prices at the height of this season?

 

For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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June 7th, 2020

PHOENIX RISIN' (?)

Out of the ashes of a self-induced economic slump that brought us Depression era unemployment rates of some 20%, comes statistical signs here in San Diego that this too shall pass.  Detached pending sales, always a harbinger of home sales to come, shot up in a trajectory not seen in normal times, depicted by this chart, up an amazing 59% in just one month. This happening on the heels of some woeful sales numbers for detached homes against last year at this time: 1220 sold, down 44%,  active listings down 41%, dollar volume, down 47% (putting the squeeze on local government revenue).  Sellers, not buyers, were deterred by the virus, as buyers jumped in: based on speed of sales, just 29 average days on the market, May's timing still  rivals with the best on record posted this April at 26 days.   While new listings are down 28% from last year, they too rose from the ashes, up 32% from just a month ago.  With the chart showing active listings limping along the same low line from December to now, there's plenty of elbow room for new sellers to enter this market.  Gauging by  a look at medium sold prices showing  only a miniscule gain of .9% over last year, waiting for greater gains at sale doesn't appear to be worth the wait.

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

May 1st, 2020

IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS (?)

While a far cry from media headlines throughout April,  Christmas data is here in San Diego real estate.  Yes, homeowners got yet another gift as the chart shows a new record high in detached median sales price, up 4.7% from last April to $683,000.  The pace of  sold detached sales was a staggering 28 average days on the market, beat only by one month going back in July of 2004 at 23 days, and sold price was 99.2% of list price, even with March for the best ever--  two more gifts to sellers.  The rest of the data definitely looks a lot like Christmas activity: new listings were down 42.2% at 2,845, but still higher than any December in the past.  Pendings, down 40.2% from April 2019, followed that same holiday season break, still hovering slightly above or below Decembers of 2018 and 2019, and sets the stage for more weak sales coming in May.  Active listings of 2872, down 38.8% from last year, are nearly identical to those of  Christmas, 2019.  In a tell-tale graph of something gone wrong,  it shows the number of sold properties in April historically rose well above prior months of that year, but took a sharp dive from March, dropping 20% in one month, and 32% below last April, and looking a lot like Christmas sales of the past.  While one might guess that buyers are reluctant to buy with business closures, the data shows buyers snatching up properties at a record pacing, with little negotiating on list price, and would-be sellers (with inventory bottoming out) most affected by the virus, possibly having  visions of masked men and women arriving at their doorstep,  potentially dropping off a virus that might kill them.  The good news is that more Americans died from the common flu in 2018 when no masks were required by law, and sales were 43% higher in April of 2018.   Buyers and agents are being allowed to see properties so the only restriction involves those wheel spinning open houses that make listing agents look busy.

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April 7th, 2020

STORM BEFORE THE CALM (?)

While March detached sales are doing that characteristic thing, carrying the median sales price to new record heights at $680,000, up 8% from last year, and average days on the market (tied with record lows of just 30 days) would make any listing agent look good, several lead  bits of data for future sales are not following that characteristic historical script: pending sales are down 1,692, 18% less than this time last year, and active listing fell to lowest level in modern times at 2,872, down a whopping 36% from last March.  Will April showers*

bring May flowers?

 

*(now a viral deluge as mainstream media might describe, but will U.S. deaths match the 80,000 flu deaths in 2018 that happened with only a few news bulletins posted about the flu killing up to 4000/wk and zero suggestions about closings of anything, including home listing showings, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches during Holy Week, and the Orwellian Los Angeles  rule for neighbors snitching on neighbors)

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(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

March 8th 2020

 LEAP YEAR IN RARIFIED AIR (?)

Rare is it to expect all-time records to fall in February but it just happened as median sales price of detached homes rose 8.5% from last Feb to $678,000.  While many will say it is due to lower mortgage rates, which, on average, were lower by  less than 1/4% from December, the real action from rate declines should start for future sales as market rates have tumbled by over 1/2% in the early days of March from February's average (see Mortgage Report) !! No doubt the market nemesis is at play here, as active detached listings  touched down at a new record low of just 2,679, a whopping 40.1% decline from February 2019.  This inventory squeeze helped sellers get what they bargained for as the percent of selling   price to list price reached 98.3%, topped only by the peak season in July of 2013, when it became abundantly clear the bottom of the marketplace from the recession had come and gone.  Even sellers over $1,000,000 had there way with prices, as they got 95.8% of asking price, just shy of the all-time  best of 96.5% in 3/2017. This million+ category shows closed sales were up by 23.2% to 281, best February number on record. But the real stand-out figure says the best is yet to come.  By using the divining rod of pending sales, it shows a huge gain at 49.8% to 442, which will no doubt have March sales  beating out February closed sales of 281, up 23.2% from 2/2019.  Condo/attached follows similar patterns as detached with the median sales price topping all months heretofore at $450,000, up 9.4% from last year.

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For a  list of properties that fit your criteria, and info on cash rebates to buyers that average $4000, contact Mesa Pacific today. For an example of how our "no cost listing" works, click here​.

(All data is unofficial and subject to change)

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February 9th 2020

COLD WINTER SALES MEET UP WITH STORMY DEMAND (?)

It may be cold outside for San Diegans and called the "off-season" for home-buying, but that didn't stop buyers from pressing on to outbid their competition amid strikingly low volume of homes

-- so low it broke the record* with only 2,730 detached listings (and 40%  lower than last January).  Those conditions made for a 9.3% increase in the median sales price compared with last January, and uncharacteristically this season tied  the all-time record high that hit at the top of normal sales season in June of 2019 at $670,000.  Even sellers of properties above $1,000,000 saw their prices rise by 4.4%.  Pending sales in this category are up 33% with all detached up by 8.4% so this trend line should not stall out in February.  While homeowners can smile at this chart, imagine any corporation dealing with sales activity dropping by 40% from a year ago. So picture  those grueling sales meetings,  tabulating the efforts of tens of thousands of registered agents in San Diego, all getting grilled on their lousy performance that's down by 40% from last year.  If they have this chart in hand,  they shouldn't take it to heart.  

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For frustrated would be buyers, the sun (and new listings) will come out tomorrow--and the cost of borrowing improved.   Get a jump on these by receiving an automated notice of new listings that fit your  search criteria, and receive large cash rebates that average $4000 when represented by Mesa Paciic.  

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*(December active listings revised to 2,805, as all sales data is unofficial when previewed early)

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Sneak Preview of December Data

January 4th 2020

NEW RECORD OF ILL REPUTE (?)

While homeowners can continue grinning ear to ear going into the new year with detached resale homes rising 6.7% from last December at $665,000 (dead even with November and that of the high-flying summer season of 8/2018),  the nemesis for would-be buyers  hit a new record low:  just 2,611 active listings, a whopping 39.8% below December last.  With all property types included,   the same new record low happened for this grouping  (4501, down 33%) in a County population of 1.24 million households according to 2018 census.   With so few active listings also in November (see 12/7 report), is it any wonder that closed detached sales (1,515)  barely gained over last December, and will likely put sales in a deep freeze in January?  Top this off with relatively few days on the market (38 days average) compared with past winter months,  it all adds up to favorable conditions for sellers to enter the market now.