San Diego Real Estate Trends

Early Bird Report on November Trends in San Diego Real Estate 

12/03/2023

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2023 most definitely would put smiles on home-owner faces most everywhere in the County and considering the numbers, would be considered the best of times.  Both average ($1,267,400- up 13.5%) and median ($945,000 up 9.2%) sales price rose either near or at double digits from December last.  But much of that came from a record squeeze on inventory.  Just like an OPEC embargo on output sends oil price sky high, so too with real estate, and the valves were the tightest ever here in San Diego County.  Would-be buyers and their agents awaiting a batch of new listings all year long got a sorry surprise each month, and no different here in December.  In fact, new listings did a disappearing act at 696, 19% below last December’s modern low and as the chart depicts, staying down in a lower bracket like no other time--all year long.  Naturally, the number of sold listings aren’t going to far much better, and last month, as the chart shows, broke through the record low bottom rung established on 01/2008 at 897, selling just 869 homes,  21% worse than last December. About the only other winner in 2023 was the tax assessor’s offer, since volume speaks volumes about increased tax receipts of roughly 1.25% on $1.50 billion on all property type sales or $18,750,000. Now the smiles might come off on home-owners who face property reassessment from these high-flying prices, sorry to say. 

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ACTIVE? DON’T READ ALL ABOUT IT—JUST YET, BUT SALES PRICE UP 18%

While the charts show even more active listings at 4,347, up a whopping 53% from last November, disbelief in that number required we run the MLS database of all detached active listings, which says this not even close and stands at 1,847.  A quick search example on La Jolla listing in the database counts 76, while the chart says there are 155.  There were 64 a year ago, so there are some bugs here.  What does correlate between the two searches is that total sold is a paltry 898, 1 sale higher than the worst month in modern times back in January 2008.  From this ash heap (where 1 sale was recorded by a Mesa Pacific listing) rises the average sales price, up 15% from November last to $1.334mil, and uncharactistically for the season, nearly hitting the all-time mark of $1.351 mil back on 4/2022.

11/04/2023  October Trends For Reference~

ACTIVE, ACTIVE, READ ALL ABOUT IT !

That’s the main trend showing up in October, as the chart shows active listings uncharacteristically jumped to 4,030, up 26.9% from last October and a whopping 41% from two years ago… so the best way to determine how this impacts a homeowner or buyer is by looking at the local area stats.  Contact us today for all the data you desire. 619-390-4042

 ​MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS & ECONOMIC REPORT~ 

12/01/2023

CLEARING THE RUNWAY FOR ELECTION YEAR LANDING?

FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 6.48%, down .32%  from November’s averages,  as China steps in and buys some $32 billion in U.S. mortgage-backed securities.  While China steps away from U.S. Treasury’s  “promise to pay” notes, with total debt rising to some 33 trillion fiat Dollars,  it does see value in Dollar denominated debt backed by a hard assets like U.S. homes.  Meanwhile, back home in China, Chinese economy in meltdown as millions default in echoes of 2008 financial crash (msn.com) .  What’s the best way to maneuver  Janet Yellen’s prediction of a soft landing for 2024?  Simply lower the new job numbers (likely coming this Friday), fiddle with lower inflation data, and lower the inflated GDP data:” GDP may paint a sunny picture of the economy, but this number tells a different story (msn.com).    Gross Domestic Income vs Gross Domestic Product, “ In theory, the two gauges should arrive at exactly the same total because every dollar that someone spends is another person’s income Over the past four quarters, GDP has increased 3% while GDI has fallen 0.16%, according to an analysis of Commerce data by Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist of SMBC Nikko Securities.  That’s the biggest disparity between the two measures in recent memory.”  But where the rubber meets the tarmac could find some large BRICs on the runway, as it gets rough selling a couple trillion in fiat Dollars to a world that thinks this promise to payback isn’t worth the paper it’s written on and will want more than a promise, like gold, silver, and finished products.  A wheel barrel full of newly printed promissory notes may someday not compare with a barrel full of oil, as German citizens discovered 100 years ago.  

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