MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS~
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Current Retail Discount Pricing:
30yr. Fixed-rate: 2.625% (2.80% APR)
-Current Retail Discount Pricing:
30yr. Fixed-rate: 2.625% (2.80% APR)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 3.26%, .10% below February average, as Wallstreet focuses on the Fed punchbowl spigot, after Chairman Powell says only a minor increase coming of .25% this month. The DOW rose 541pts to 33,834 on the announcement as the audience applauds this referee's call that continues the scoring drive. While the games are televised, few have a clue that CGI techniques are being applied, as even short players can dunk the ball with ease. The Dollar is holding the ball seemingly in control, but the players' guide that charts stats shows a very weak bench should the Dollar suddenly get weak kneed from too much adrenalin injections (see chart on M-2 money supply growth increase of 40% since 2020). The Chinese and Russian benches are preparing a gold reserve concoction to strengthen their play in the next round, serving up gold to back their bench of currency, which could leave the Dollar backpedaling in defensive mode, with inflation nipping at every player's heels. The latest figures might be ok for Wallstreet betting on higher prices, but main street consumers are stuck with it and about to get mugged by radically higher prices for energy, and higher energy costs work their way through goods and services production lines (see energy chart). The CRB index tracks commodity prices overall, and the latest spike is historic according to this chart, albeit 2008 took a very sharp rise much higher before a very sharp fall from a severe recession. Adding to this unique March madness is the sudden government seizure of private company assets, not based on any crime committed, but on nationality and/or political support (there are over 300 U.S. companies doing business in Russia by the way). With this type of policy expanding, no assets are genuinely safe. As global supply chains continue being disrupted, including food and energy, those prices are ready to hit new heights. Energy runs the global economic engines, which provides jobs. Add "Going green" global policies before there's a replacement for fossil fuels will only contribute to stalled growth and fetch $8-$10/gal gasoline in the meantime. The Feds are trapped in that cache 22 world, where raising interest rates makes things even more costly, and create even more shortages. Computer Generated Imagery (CGI) makes for great entertainment and storytelling but are masking what's really going on. The markets may wake up Monday with the mask lifted and charts inked in red due to a whole new outlook. The only good beyond this madness is that rumors are a whole new playing field (sans CGI) is coming, and may create that March madness positive excitement of some tangible and real changes, not imagined, and history may just mark March of 2022 as the pivot point on how close we came to relentless madness. For now, cash is king for all households to weather this March madness.
THE INVISIBLE HAND vs THE HIDDEN HAND
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 3.13%, UP .14% from January's average. While the market expected 150,000 new jobs, the government says there were over 3 times as many at a whopping 467,000. Missing by that much is very strange, but stockholders went along with it. Way stranger still, no one said a bleep about the ADP Report (ADP handles payrolls nationwide for private companies and publishes estimates for many years now). The January figures projected last week estimated a loss of 301,000 private sector jobs in January! Anything like that would of course put stocks into a tailspin and send us right into a Black Monday event. Is this still a free market as Adam Smith in his book, Wealth of Nations, described?
"The invisible hand is part of laissez-faire, meaning "let do/let go," approach to the market. In other words, the approach holds that the market will find equilibrium without government or other interventions forcing it into unnatural patterns...
The invisible hand metaphor distills two critical ideas. First, voluntary trades in a free market produce unintentional and widespread benefits. Second, these benefits are greater than those of a regulated, planned economy. " Investopedia.
Now meet the hidden hand which magicians also call the slight of hand. Back in 2011, The Feds estimate of $1.3 trillion to the banks in the form of loans was used to keep Wallstreet running in the 2008-2010 financial taxpayer bailouts, but according to Levy Economics Institute, the total added up to $29 trillion, and much of which went to foreign banks. All this paper fuel eventually leads to the inflation fire starting now. Another sleight of hand is believing the Federal Reserve is an institution owned by our Federal Government, but it is a board that consists of a group of privately owned banks, "investment" banks who trade stocks. The board also requests the Treasury to issue cash/loans to their member banks. It's great work if you can get it. So stocks, including big bank stocks, rise on Federal job growth estimates that are over 3 times higher than private estimates, .and a 100 mile's distance from that of ADP estimate-- and they have a bridge to sell 100 miles sight unseen away as well.
SLIP AND SLIDE INTO 2022 (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.90%, UP .31% from November and December average levels, as bond melt-down begins. While it hasn't been a "bond bomb" just yet, there really isn't much to prevent rates from moving higher, as hyper-inflation of 12% (includes food and energy) can't just be wished away by the Feds. A dive into the stock market values shows only the market kingpins are keeping it afloat, as a rather "massive meltdown is occurring with 40% of Nasdaq companies have had their values cut by 50% or more from their 52-week highs." There are whispers in the underworld that a whole new system is about to be launched that will make this archaic system of boom/bust cycles, inflation/deflation and endless money printing obsolete. More details to come on this when and if they develop.
MAGICAL MYSTERY TOUR ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.50%, up a slight .03% from yesterday, even after the Feds announced today they to begin tapering off purchases of treasuries and this mortgage-backed securities beginning later in the month and the hourly trend monitor above says yields are improving to boot. Even stockholders seem to applaud this with DOW up 203pts to 32,327. and S&P hits new highs. This magical mystery move in the credit markets must have some basis for explanation because it begs the question: who will be stepping in to buy if the Treasury reduces the purchases of it's own debt creation. Are all those Dollars sloshing around the globe to offset emergencies by unknown creations over last couple of years having to find something, anything to buy since it doesn't pay to save (actually costs to save in in Switzerland and Japan). In Argentina, you can get a 38% note rate, although you get back less than what you paid since inflation there is running at 52% annually, or a loss of 14% on your investment. So if real inflation in the U.S. is running 12% (see article below), and you wanted to buy a mortgage-backed security for 2.5%, your loss of 9.50% isn't as bad as Argentina (12%-2.5%= 09.50% loss), but why would you do that, unless you riding on the magical mystery tour bus wearing kaleidoscope glasses. When phony yields meet funny money created out of thin air, it could be the bomb that didn't go off in October, and rumors are Evergrande really didn't meet their debt obligation in October (see Red October). For those seeking phenomenal mortgage rates before any bond bomb hits, call us today.
RED OCTOBER: BOND BOMBS AWAY?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.63%, up only 1/4% from Summer's averages, despite inflation numbers that compare with the late 1970s. Back in 1978, home borrowers didn't know how good they had it if they ended up with a 9.75% 30yr fixed rate mortgage. That's because rates zoomed up from there by 1% and then 12% and higher. Today, we have a slight of hand when dealing a deck of inflation data by eliminating food and energy, which put inflation rates up to some 12% and higher back then (see our 1984 report on these auctions dropping to 13.25% and rat rate schedule back then then). In those days, the "market rates" were determined by global institutional purchases of these mortgage-backed securities by money fund managers, and other global governments. Naturally, if inflation is running 12%, not a soul would be buying 2.625% yielding notes, unless that soul is the Federal Reserve to prop up this seemingly unbelievable bond and securities record low yields. As the chart shows, real cost of living vs the government's calcs are worlds apart, roughly 5% compared with 12%. Oh, but Feds say this 5% is transitory--yeah, as transitory as government printing money it doesn't have. So it's clear the public is being bamboozled and something has to give. The more devaluing the Dollar via printing out of thin air, the more Dollars it takes to buy the same basket of goods (it's elementary, dear Watson). Bottlenecks of goods around the globe appear to have little to do with old-fashion supply and demand, and will force the consumer to rethink contingency plans ahead this Winter as prices will be forced even higher on most every product. Another way to look at it, when the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, a $100 back then is now worth less than $3.50, hardly a reason for the Fed Reserve to take a bow, and gives more reason for John Q public to search in vain for things the government is good at --this as protests mount against government incursion into their lives, physical bodies, and wallets. With Evergrande capsizing in a sea of Red Chinese debt and bondholders' reassurance relying only on a government bail out of some $300b in debt, coupled with the drowning of D.C. in red ink this month, will this be the final push over the precipice? Will that fall be cushioned by a whole new global financial system--free of debt and outside the grasp of the old guard? Will barroom chatter consist of talk of the difference between a sovereign citizen's rights under a new system vs chattel property be on the rise? Is their symbolism attached to the firs time ever the White House is lit up in red this October?
REALVILLE HOUSE OF CARDS (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.37% up just a razor's edge from the average of the last 3 months, as the markets show little sign, if any, of the coming of Realville. A stock analyst said "no need to panic" not once, but twice, when talking about stock moving averages lately, so maybe there's a deeper meaning to it. Sometimes it's better to say nothing when you want to avoid the world of Realville. For instance, when a reporter was starting to asked White House spokesperson Psaki for her comments on 900 pages of documents proving Dr. Fauchi lied about his involvement in Wuhan Labs for "gain of function" for a particular V, she "bolted" away from the podium. The implications, of course, is the entire foundation on the whys and wherefores of the pandemic and subsequent global medical tyranny of forced injections, is about to crumble. Oddly, the market doesn't quite get the implications just yet since incredible is defined by Webster's Dictionary as too extraordinary and improbable to be believed . Case in point is 9-11-2001, where video clearly shows the official narrative to be totally false, yet it is still too incredible for many to believe it was an inside job. Psychologists say that when confronted with Realville, the mind of many will go into a protective mode to defend a pre-wired perception of one's reality, and this defensive reaction when confronted with Realville is called cognitive dissonance. Is Realville about to unravel many minds? When markets get a dose of it, they tend to fall back and ask questions later, and there will be many doses ahead coming from many angles.
THE PRECIPICE: SITE UNSEEN ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.40%, up .14% from the start of the month, rising slowly above the 2.33% average for July. As the markets stairstep their way to new highs due to intoxicating fumes emitted from Senate passage of a $1 trillion spending bill with another $3.5 trillion on the table for September (DOW at record of 35,264, up 167pts today), is this real or just a fantasy? After all, the markets hone in on key questions asked by analysts like: will it keep rising amid COVID variant rise? While that might be a legitimate question if a variant could actually be identified, or even COVID-19 itself, but the CDC admitted recently their PCR tests can't even differentiate between a cold or flu, or COVID-19, nor has the actual virus ever been isolated in the lab. Ask any lab technician if they can test for a specific antigen/virus when they don't have the sample, called the standard. But an even greater risk is that the cure is worse than the symptoms, and the cure rate from the symptoms is 99.5- to 99.98% depending on age and immunity system. Bottom line is death from COVID-19 is no greater than a bad season of the flu and simple solutions like HCQ cure it, yet government vaccine mandates are being announced today for teachers and public workers. This despite international laws that require consent. Biologists say this isn't a vaccine but actually, as Moderna calls their injection, an experimental "operating system" and mRNA inventor, Dr Malone calls it "gene therapy," and is opposed to using it as a vaccination. While stocks love to sop up all this liquidity flowing out of D.C. with inflated Dollars (that buys fewer goods) raining down from the sky, rational investors should ask is this real or just a fantasy? Now John Q Public is starting to say this is more like a nightmare where government is taking away freedom of choice. When some kid yells "the King has no clothes on" or some such dream awakening moment, what happens when the markets come to and find themselves standing at a precipice with the green screen of gentle rolling pastures is removed, and staring down a 5,000 foot drop? It might just be a Black Monday moment of jumping back in fear. That green curtain disguised the fact that there's been a war against the U.S. people and other nation states for decades, a covert war that first stripped away manufacturing base, that created dependencies on places like China. This asymmetrical warfare now being wage involves cyber warfare on energy and supply chains of food and equipment, control of the flow of information, and even weather modification systems that destroy food crops with floods and droughts, and fires, high energy and inflation, massive election fraud to destabilize and control governmental bodies, and now a bio-weapon to disable the population. This is a global war launched with infiltration from within each country. Word is this green screen will get pulled in the very near future to start the big reveal. But the good news is the markets will fall right into that Gate # 3 ride option described below, and a master switch is shut down, only to get switched on to a whole new financial system that freezes out all bad actor infiltrators. As Ramses would say in his day: So it is written, so it is done.
TWILIGHT OF THE TWILIGHT ZONE ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.41%, ditto of last month, as the FED fix is still in, keeping these rates down by being the buyer of last resort of these mortgage-backed securities. These yields were once called "market rates," but normally it takes two or more participants to call anything a market. When the President of the U.S. whispers to the public he "got $1.9 trillion" for us, you know we are at the edge of The Twilight Zone of economics. Fans of Rod Serling's writings know the story always ends with some irony and big surprises. But it won't be a surprise on why inflation will be the shadowy demon lurking in the background and gnawing on the wallets of Americans.
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.41%, near eye-lash even with May's average, as Feds keep this ship on auto-pilot. For those following events closely, we know what happened to a large vessel on auto-pilot traveling through the Suez Canal on Easter Sunday. The series of mortgage reports listed below could be dated today, and Gate #3 could be opening soon.
SHIP OF FOOLS ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.37%, moving slowly down through the week, and .10% below March average, as the credit markets set their ship on auto-pilot as Treasury keeps the bilges of debt from piling higher by printing up new money to keep things afloat. What does new money look like? Some of it shows up in the chart here on the expansion of M-2 money supply, going from 16,103 billion (ie, 16.1 trillion) in March 2020, to 19.7 trillion in February, a 22% increase in 11 months. Fed balance sheet chart shows a take off at the start of COVID in March from $4.10 trillion to 7.793 trillion by April,14, 2021, a 90% increase, all used to finance budget deficits and keep these mortgage rates low by buying them when the international markets won't.
The age old definition of inflation is "too much money chasing too few of goods," and the real estate market may be an early illustration of that. While home-owners call it appreciation, would be-buyers see it as an inflationary cost of living. It's a good time to expect the unexpected so lock in your rate today, and if you already own a home, buy silver and gold tomorrow, as fixed assets are a way to weather an inflationary storm brewing.
CAN'T FOOL WITH MOTHER NATURE ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.49%, up .21% since the start of the week, and a whooping 1/2% from January's averages, as Fed cloud-seeding of the bond market to create artificially lower rates gets blown away by market forces. In a weird way, this action was duplicated on a much smaller scale where Game Stop professional short selling manipulators were trying to force this stock down, but millions of millennial traders ganged up on them, buying the stock , and blew the pros away with huge losses. investors worldwide are challenging the pros at the Fed by selling mortgage-backed securities (or any dollar-denominated debt), betting rates to rise naturally no matter what the Feds do, as the Dollar droops in value, some 4% from last year (roughly meaning bond investors at sale get back Dollars that are worth 4% less than what they had invested, or a supermarket example, it takes $4 more dollars to buy $100 worth of goods than it did 12 months ago) . Wild-eyed spending bills continue to pile on as Congress just passed new spending bill of $1.9 trillion without, as usual, showing how to pay for it.
QE3 SQUARED: TO INFINITY AND BEYOND? / ON A MAGIC CARPET RIDE (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.99%, ever so slight increase on January's average of 1.98%, as Feds continue to keep a lid on mortgage prices with their Midas touch. While everyone in the financial world offers predictions of the new year, much is based on scenarios so here are the potential flight patterns described like a new Disney ride:
Passengers. Please decide which trip you have selected and pickup your boarding pass at the gate:
Gate #1 requires a crash helmet for riders and offers a return to times of the pass, though the accumulated debt since 2010 is quadruple that, and accelerating like rocket man flying off to a new magical adventure, but this adventure ride has a finite journey when money is created, not by the production of goods and services, but by the movement of a decimal point to increase cash holdings, much like having $1,000 in savings and overnight goes to $10,000--a magical moment. However that magic ends due to the realities of the economic forces involved in just creating money on a wish: that $10,000 now buys you a 3 day solo trip to Disney World. Interest rates rise from inflation (mortgage rates were as high as 14% in 1984) and puts that home purchase out of reach.
Gate #2 also requires a crash helmet where governments all over the world attempt to stop this erosion of the purchase power of the Greenback (and other currencies) by creating a one world digital crypto currency. They claim it cannot be controlled or manipulated--like moving the digital currency supply another decimal point over--or so they promise. Carpet ride ends in a second heap next to Gate #1 exit, closing down the park.
Gate #3 requires seat belts for initial bumps in weeks to come followed by a complete overhaul and cleansing of global archaic systems that have corrupted and bankrupt nations over time--and the replacement stabilizes systems and creates a future of prosperity for all.
IDES OF MARCH COMES EARLY/
ET TU ALL OF YOU?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.00%,
slowly rising from January's start at 1.88%, as the most tumultuous election in our lifetime comes to an end, but the end becomes the beginning. Stocks are hitting new highs (DOW up 31,068), and the credit markets continue pumping out record low rates, seemingly oblivious to what is happening behind the scenes. In ancient times, Senators in Rome were plotting treasonous actions behind closed doors. "It would soon be over for Caesar," Brute whispered amongst his peers all huddled in their chamber. And yes, as in ancient times, all roads lead to Rome, and this one document attached below tells that tale for the Ides in 2021. But unlike history repeating itself, the Centurions are at the Gates under the command of Caesar who knows of their plotting, and it is the Senators who are destined to fall on their own knives. When the die is cast, and history records the events unfolding now, what will market scribes scramble to notate? "Darkest before The Light?" he hastily writes.
TRANQUIL WATERS IN A DIGITAL WORLD (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.90%, as these auctions flatline and held at bay by Fed purchases with money created digitally. There's something else in the air outside of viruses that is slated at a Davos meeting right as someone is being sworn in as President of the U.S. Perhaps that's the reason for the timing of this meeting discussing a global financial reset. The markets aren't discussing this just yet since much is in the air on who and what, and why, but "digital" is a clue word that likely won't go away.
TRANQUIL WATERS (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.95%, almost exactly the average for September returns, and up about 1/8% from August average, as there's hardly a ripple here all Summer long. As comforting as that may be on the surface, below it is a continued expansion of Fed printing habits necessary to keep these mortgage rates in check and Federal government operating by financing huge budget deficits. This is because roughly one-half of the Federal Reserve balance sheet is composed of Treasury debt with the other half represented as purchases of these vary mortgage-backed securities. The chart shows how these purchases sky-rocketed starting Mid-March, coincidently on the heels of CV outbreak, from $4 trillion to $7 trillion. But the good news here is at least the funds are helping homeowners reduce their debt load with lower refi rates, and incentivizes buyers into the housing market, freeing them from rising rental rates. The other half of the balance sheet is covering Congress's emergency spending and long-term inability to cope with ever rising budget deficits. How this ends will likely involve more than just ripples but some analysts say it will spell a new beginning, just around the corner in 2021.
NO GAIN WITHOUT THE PAIN (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.95% rising slowly each day in September and increasing by .10% from August averages, even while stocks tank (DOW down 405pts to 27,534). Analysts say investors are get a sinking feeling that a trillion plus government stimulus package isn't going to happen anytime soon. If that's the motivation, then the stock market is living off temporary government assistance programs just like the credit markets obviously are doing with these artificially record low rates (see previous reports below on this). The operative word is "temporary" and direction looms large on election outcome. On the optimistic side, the line that might best describe from here to there is: no gain without some pain. Will the pain of 9-11 anniversary tomorrow reveal big changes to come or wait for the October surprise?
30yr. Fixed-rate: 2.875% (2.89% APR)
STOP THE PRESSES (NOT)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.84%, up only .05% from 8-11 report, but the shot heard around the national mortgage market added about 1/4% to mortgage prices on 8-12. . So we know lenders have been pricing their loans much higher than these wholesale prices to offset losses from delayed mortgage collections, but now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who are being led toward independence from government ownership control,, say they too need that margin increase to offset mortgage payment delays and potential defaults down the road. Of course, that's ok with the Feds since they have unlimited Dollar printing abilities. But maybe this a foreshadowing of things to come in the world at large when countries say they want more bang for the Buck when they covert their currencies to the Dollar.to protect from future declines in the Dollar's value.
RATE LOCK IN ADVICE: This has the looks of the end of the road for mortgage rate declines so best lock in soon.
ROCKET, MAN PROPELLANT/ or STOP THE PRESSES (NOT)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.79%, up a slight .01% from the opening, but losing ground during the session as the rate indicator above demonstrates. A trillion here, a trillion there, and next thing you know your talking some serious money. Easy way to write it down is to remember there are 4 sets of 3 zeroes after 1. The chart here on M-2 (savings) after all this printing shows supply running in Space X missile trajectory at the start of 2020, no longer following the gently rising hillside landscape scene over the last 25 years. That 18,400 posted as the latest entry is in billions, which has 3 sets of zeroes, which registers an explosive economic propellant of 18.4 trillion dollars, an increase of 3 trillion in just 6 months. With all this cash thrown at the markets (including Fed purchases of these mortgage-backed securities), any wonder why real estate prices here in San Diego shot up in July?
Current Retail Discount Pricing:
30yr. Fixed-rate: 2.75% (2.90% APR)
SHOT IN THE ARM (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.02%, down a notch from yesterday and about 1/8% from 7-1, as these rates continue trickling down to lows that briefly touched down for a week or so in 9/2012 before turning up quickly, all the while the Feds were in full buying mode of these mortgage-backed securities. As the lender of last resort, the Feds are now the buyers of last resort of these securities to hold the rate down. Granted this massive shot in the arm gives a temporary fix, but putting its balance sheets way up, holding these securities and treasury debt to a staggering $7 trillion dollars. Since money doesn't grow on trees, the next best thing is to print it (actually just move some decimal points to the right and save on paper). Will the old definition of inflation get used again: "too much money chasing too few goods?" And with inflation comes rising interest rates. Best to lock in while the gettin's good.
30yr. Fixed-rate: 3.00% (3.36% APR)
06/04/2020 2:00 PM
WORM TURNED (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.38%, up .10% from Wednesday and that much higher against April and May's average. If there was a target for these auctions, induced by Fed purchases, it's 2.28% or there about. That's the price investors get when buying these fixed-rate mortgage securities, which seems like a good buy vs 10yr. treasuries at .8%. But that was before the latest unemployment report today showing it had dropped from 20% to 13% just in 30 days. Stocks took off (DOW up 829 pts to 27,110), attracting investors away from these smaller yields. With overblown fears of a deadly pandemic abated, many analysts outside of mainstream media figure a new act has just been tossed onto the stage in hopes of continuing fear and anxiety--perhaps all the way to the elections. Others see these bad actors getting rounded up. This 3rd party spreadsheet tracking all district court recordings count an incredible amount of sealed indictments totaling over 148,000, and one indictment can have multiple individuals named.
BRAVE NEW WORLD (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.26%, back to May 1st level, after reaching a new low of 2.20% on 15/15/2020. If Rip Van Investor had been asleep for one year and woke up to a yield on a 10yr. Treasury note at .63% from 2.30% back then, and went to his local bank and was stopped because he wasn't wearing a mask (when it normally would have likely triggered a silent alarm and a police escort out of the bank), he'd think he walked into the Twilight Zone. From a booming economy and record low unemployment, to Depression levels of 20% and businesses banned, he learns it's all from a flu virus. In San Diego, he reads a chart today displaying 220 deaths and California has 3630. He whips out his calculator and divides 220 by 3,325,000, the population of San Diego County, and gets .0066% death rate. In California, with a population of 40,000,000, the figure is .009%. Wondering what's a good baseline, he figures about 40,000 annual deaths on the highway and divides that number by 330,000,000 people = .012%. So the chances of San Diegans dying from Covid-19 is almost half that of driving on the highway. He fumbles his calculator and reaches for his pace-maker that's missing a beat, and reminded that 500,000 Americans die each year from heart attacks. His calculator says that's a .15% death rate, and keels over and back to slumber.
BRAVE NEW WORLD 2020 SCI-FI(?)
What once was required reading in high school, these two books are gathering several decades of dust on them. Summary from Sparknotes: "Like George Orwell’s 1984, this novel (Brave New World) depicts a dystopia in which an all-powerful state controls the behaviors and actions of its people in order to preserve its own stability and power. But a major difference between the two is that, whereas in 1984 control is maintained by constant government surveillance, secret police, and torture, power in Brave New World is maintained through technological interventions that start before birth and last until death, and that actually change what people want. The government of 1984 maintains power through force and intimidation. The government of Brave New World retains control by making its citizens so happy and superficially fulfilled that they don’t care about their personal freedom. In Brave New World the consequences of state control are a loss of dignity, morals, values, and emotions—in short, a loss of humanity."
May 1st, 2020
MAY DAY A RECORD DAY
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.26%, slowly creeping down over the last 2 weeks, 1/8% lower than April's average to an all-time record low.
While these wholesale prices look amazing to see, retail lenders see risk in closing the loans, only to have some go delinquent before even selling to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, as borrowers line up asking for forbearance. This higher risk translate to lenders padding their prices and instituting tighter guidelines. Major corporations are forming a different line, putting up corporate bonds sales estimated at $240b to pad their reserves in case business doesn't bounce back soon. Billionaire Elon Musk isn't following the narrative for continuation of shutdown:
Musk did not doubt that there was a public health issue at large, but he felt allowing governments to end all economic activity as a means to safeguard health was Orwellian, to say the least.
“The expansion of shelter-in-place, or as we call it, forcibly imprisoning people in their homes, against all their constitutional rights, is, in my opinion, breaking people’s freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong."
SQUEEZIN' BLOOD OUT OF A TURNIP (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.34%, down .03% from last trade day on Thursday, lowest this year, and since the average of 09/2012. Back then on 9/12/12, the Fed announced the purchase of $40b in these mortgage-backed securities on a monthly basis, which produced 2.33% average for that month. Today, for the upcoming week, the schedule calls for roughly $19.5b. Assume that is the pace over the next 30 days, the figure adds up to $78 billion, nearly double the amount the Feds threw at the market in 2012. Will rates fall further? With the companion 10yr Treasury yielding a miniscule .732%, a historical low, it would seem there really isn't much lower the market could go.
DEATH OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS GREATLY EXAGGERATED (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.46%, up a slight .01% from yesterday, staying in a narrow trading range, aided by FED purchases of these mortgage-backed securities. For several years now, the Trump Administration has wondered what life would be like without the Federal Reserve. Considering it is a privately owned (not publicly as we all once assumed) institution, and the owners own the 12 very large member banks, they get to instruct the Treasury to print money and give (loan at very low discount rate) to their own member banks, who loan it out at higher rates and also invest in stocks, bonds, and other securities. Nice work if you can get it. This group was established in 1914 to provide stability in the markets, but the track record, as famed economist Milton Friedman once said, is not a good one.
Economist Thomas Sowell explains why he agrees.
Other nations prefer to steer clear of this kind of private control by a handful of elites and some are choosing to trade in other currencies outside of the "Petro-Dollar." fearing the potential of a weakened Dollar from unlimited printing. Recall there once was a closely watched index call M-2, money supply measurement to monitor inflation potential, but few mention this anymore. The charts say maybe we should. M-2 over the last year grew by 6.8% but GDP grew by less than half of that so that other half doesn't represents the result from goods and services produced and sold. This chart shows growth from 1959 to present and note it took 40 years for money supply to grow to $5 trillion, but this doubled from there in half the time to over $15 trillion. Purchasing hard assets like real estate (while rates at historical lows), gold, silver and other precious metals would be good ways to defend against what is bound to come sooner or later.
APRIL FOOLS RUMORMONGERING (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.48%, up .10% from yesterday, exactly even with March average, as stocks drop (DOW at 21,168 by 750pts) due to more fears of virus projections, while a real war lies below the surface. What if the virus ends up killing less people than the 80,000 who died here in U.S. from a common flu in 2018, and is a smoke screen to eradicate an enemy described long ago by John F. Kennedy in his speech warning about the dangers of secret societies? What if these secret societies with nefarious goals own and control central banks around the globe, and Trump Administration just closed one of their head quarters here in the U.S. known as The Federal Reserve (a privately owned corporation who are also owners of its member banks)? What if all communications are shutdown for 3 days as part of a global roundup of what's known as New World Order Cabal? What if all of this is one big April Fool's joke?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.38%, up .10% from yesterday's record low start, but still over 1/2% below February average. Stocks attracted money flows from the credit markets yesterday, and still holding their own this A.M (DOW at 22,396), as news that Chinese manufacturers showed "an unexpected strong rebound...
China’s official service sector purchasing managers index climbed to 52.3 in March from a record-low reading of 29.6 in February...The PMI readings were well above expectations and almost too good to be a true for an economy that is still not fully functioning at its pre-crisis optimum level, said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, in a note."
Another surprise is the Dollar rose higher, even as Treasury printing presses worked over-time, preparing for the $2 trillion U.S. relief aid package.
As low as these wholesale mortgage auctions have gone since February, lenders are awaiting a clear and stable level before diving lower. That's why it is best to have your loan in processing, awaiting significant moves.
COMPUTER VIRUS OF A DIFFERENT SORT (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.41%, down .03% from yesterday, with the hour glass trend indictor above saying it's getting better all the time and likely beating the lowest return in 2020 and back in September 2012. Stockholders thought the same, and got off the mat, rising after last week's knock-out punch (DOW up 20% in last 3-day run), running around the ring like Rocky Balboa unchained, but got decked this morning (down 719pts at 21,815) with news headlines saying more in U.S. inflected than China's total. CDC says there were 80,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2018 from the flu, or 219/da on average, but did anyone notice except next-of-kin? While hospitals and clinics have lines of panicked people awaiting testing to see which kind of flu they might have, this new one, though more contagious, has killed only 1300 so far. Some analysts call the real threat a "computer virus," like digital communications spreading panic and fear electronically via TV sets 24/7 throughout the world-- one that could endanger the global economic system by continuing the status quo. Far more deaths and misery, they say, would occur similar to the '30s depression. President Trump is calling for a return to work following Easter Sunday, and have the 20% most likely threatened--the elderly and those with impaired immune systems-- continue self-quarantined at home.
While lenders are slow to jump on this latest movement until a series of new lows register, best to get loans in process, awaiting solid movement lower. When businesses re-open, it's likely these record lows will be over.