MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS~
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Current Retail Discount Pricing:
30yr. Fixed rate: 6.00% (6.42% APR)
FED EXPERIMENT GOES BUST
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 6.26%, UP a whopping .4% from Thursday, and UP 1.41% from August average, even when the Fed balance sheet shows they bought $5.287 billion of these mortgage-backed securities in the week ending 9-14-22, bringing total holdings back to 5-11-22 levels of quantitative easing (QE) policies at $2.715 trillion. Once again at any auction house, attractive pieces get bid higher from eager buyers, while less attractive have to lower the bid price, or be removed by the auctioneer. In the case of these MBS, figure the Feds come in and buy up what outside buyers don't want to pay, and thus keep the asking price from falling. The caveat here in mortgage and bond prices is that falling prices produces higher rates, and vice-versa. So this begs the question: how much higher would these mortgage rates have flown if the Fed had not intervened and became a big buyer again at these auctions? Or worse, how off the chart would they go if the Feds sold these MBS holdings at these auctions, as was their intent when they announced policy shift of quantitative tightening early in June? That would have been an explosive cocktail mix, but one that maybe fitting for the inflation cocktail already stirred up by the Feds in yearly QE dosages, now downed and coursing through the veins of the economy and shrinking consumer wallets. At Wednesday's press conference, Fed Chairman Powell was asked about plans to reduce its $2.7 trillion holdings of these mortgage-backed securities. Powell responded "It's something I think we will turn to, but that time — the time for turning to it has not come ... It's not close." (insert sound of an explosion in background at Fed laboratory). When stockholders caught the drift that slowing the economy and causing higher unemployment was the Feds only plan for the future, the DOW dove below 30,000 to 29,590, and the shift from highs to lows, as the chart shows, from Wednesday to Friday was a whopping 1,785 pts. before recovering slightly. Granted government spending unchained is a big part of problem that's out of Fed Reserve control, all while Congress blames the Fed for inflation. It's tough not to see the sign post up ahead LAB CLOSED with these explosive results, unless something new and explosively good news happens in other financial laboratories not yet revealed, but awaits discovery in our immediate future and beyond (see Real Estate Advisor Section at upper right hand corner tab).
Sign Post Up Ahead: WRONG WAY—DO NOT ENTER
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 5.33%, up .11% from yesterday, stair stepping UP NEARLY 1/2% from August averages, and back to levels not seen since the FED's very brief foray into quantum tightening, when they backed off from buying these mortgage-backed securities with plans to sell to the open market (see 06/03/2022 report :THIS JUST ON THE Q.T.). Fed balance sheet shows they had to acquire $18b since that time totaling $2.726 trillion in MBS to ward off even higher mortgage rates (large purchases of these MBS helps push rates down. Selling with few buyers pushes rates higher). Another important chart shows an exploding M2 money supply starting January 2020 skyrocketing by 40%. From $15.4 to $21.7 trillion in just 31 months. Going back to July, 2014, the amount was $11.4 trillion, nearly doubling since then. It's interesting to note that real estate prices here in San Diego also nearly doubled since july of 2014, from $658k to $1.257mil in July, 2022. San Diego housing rental rates also followed nearly the same doubling trajectory. If one of the definitions of inflation is too many Dollars chasing too few of goods, and raising interest rates inhibits the growth in goods & services and the consumer's ability to pay for them, shouldn't fiscal policies be directed at stimulating production of more goods, creating tax-free manufacturing zones and other incentives to bring manufacturing back, free from potential foreign embargoes, freeing taxpayers of growing burdens. Cutting production and taxing and regulating businesses and consumers away from the main ingredient that all economies require to run, not only effectively, but necessary for human survival: energy, is insane, unless the goals are nefarious. Knowing the Earth moves in elliptical fashion around the Sun and other planets warn and cool as well in this pattern never enters the discussion on this fixation on CO2 emissions (and now toxic nitrogen), both essential ingredients to plant life. To demonstrate how the West was not won in 2022, and the destructive and neurotic leadership thinking taking place, one need only read today's headline: G-7 nations agree to plan to impose price cap on Russian oil. Anyone living in the Nixon time period of capping gasoline prices knows the story doesn't end well, with long lines in search of any gasoline available. Right now, Polish people are already lining the street to get chunks of coal for a cold winter ahead "Go Green" is a good idea where practical (MPM office powered by 100% solar) but going without a replacement to fossil fuel is a lesson Europeans will be learning the very hard way this Winter. GDP growth measures goods and services produced. FRED at St Louis Fed chart says GDP up, up and away, while most other analysts say it contracted for 2 straight quarters. It seems FED pump priming that began in earnest back in 2012 is nearing the end of the road, and it's rather incredible the Feds and Treasury Sec Yellen "didn't see inflation coming"--so incredible it's more likely a script they're forced to read. Charles Schwab (via Bloomberg news) provided an inflation chart on things households normally consume and costs shot up in 2022, rising 30% from last year for utilities, electricity, food, and gasoline. Other reports say "20 million people are behind on their electricity bill." while "15% of Americans are behind on rental payments." Campo, CEO REIT Camden Property Trust, says this on renter struggles and remedies that go in the wrong direction: "If...employers are not hiring people now and laying people off, you start getting into the destruction of demand. It’s not so much that initial inflation but the medicine for fixing inflation that tanks the market.” More tomfoolery once again shows up in the government employment report released today, claiming 315,000 new jobs, but other analysts drilling down on the numbers say the rise is in part-time workers, and loss of full-time (see charts) and conclude that "fewer people working, but more people working more than one job." This deception is all part of the information warfare being waged. If the master plan by the puppet masters is to destroy the U.S. economically (not to mention militarily), then it's working well (at website, see 3rd Column 11-06-2021 A WAR GAME OF A DIFFERENT SORT?). What appears right down the road are shortages of most every commodity imaginable but no shortage of extreme weather that brings heat, drought, fires and floods in the U.S. and throughout the world (how many natural 500 year events are possible at same time in many parts of the world?). But there is another signpost up ahead that could swerve us away from this head on collision (see Future Industry Advisories in 3rd column dated today
TACKLING INFLATION BY FIAT WITH FIAT/ "LET IT BE DONE"
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 4.72%, up .22% from July's average but still nearly 3/4% below the level of rate increases that followed in June after Fed attempt at quantitative tightening to rein in inflation. But where Feds fail, Congress succeeds by fiat, (fiat: [noun] a command or act of will that creates something without... further effort. Latin for "let it be done,"). This Congressional hat trick is performed with the creation of even more new fiat Dollars, which is the root cause of inflation to begin with, and testing the IQ of citizens, dare call the bill The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. So, in line with Pharoah Ramses famous quote of ancient times, "so it is written, so it is done" and we can move along. Of course, names can be deceiving and have opposite effects, like the Affordable Healthcare Act, where premiums more than doubled. Then there was the Patriot Act, which gave government new abilities for NSA to monitor and spy on Americans and impose travel sanctions in the guise of monitoring alleged terrorists. Even the Congressional Budget Office said the impact on budget deficit reduction was a drop in the bucket: CBO estimates that enacting this legislation would result in a net decrease in the deficit totaling $102 billion over the 2022-2031 period. That's a measly $10.2 billion per year while deficits are in the trillions per year ($2.8 trillion in 2021). This new bill part of the "build back better" theme adds 87,000 new IRS agents, fully armed with Congressional funding of some $700,000 in ammo alone for the IRS, which prompted a new bill by the opposition called Disarm the IRS Act. At the added cost of $45.6 billion, does Congress plan on collecting more than the increased cost? Clearly, this build back better Congress and Admin sees small and mid-sized businesses as annoying political opponents, tagging them with a minimum tax, profit or no profit, all the while funding Ukraine with over $6.5 billion and U.S. homeless citizens line the streets, and illegals overrun the border. Need new jobs data to beat back recession talk and propel the markets into the upcoming elections? Simply ignore the Household Survey on employment which includes self-employed that showed over 160,000 job losses since March, and tinker with the Labor Department's Establishment survey numbers that ended up having analysts call it a "hot jobs report." Here the report doubled the expected number, hitting 500,000. Oftentimes in the past, and 6 months after the initial report, the numbers get amended for "seasonal adjustments." A quick check on ADP, the largest payroll company in the U.S. for their monthly headcount just for cross-referencing government payroll job counts, and we find they've gone silent this Summer, allegedly updating software (?). Their reports have been going out every month two days before the government report for decades, but a simple total of all new payrolls is not available? All this while the chart on weekly jobless claims continues its accent since April to over 260,000. Analysts also found a jump in wage earners with two jobs that increased the job count, but certainly not the result of a healthy employment sector (see charts and summaries on these findings). If manipulation of numbers is not new (see CDC record), then it is conceivable there are easy ways to lower inflation data for July, which has stockholders giddy (or from adjusting stock algorithms to level Giddy-IV- 428pts on DOW) with DOW summary: Signs that inflation could be peaking followed a better-than-expected employment report last week, easing (sic) concerns about an imminent recession in the world's largest economy. If just the opposite were true, add into the mix supply chain problems of food and energy and real sky-high inflation. If there was a plan to eliminate the middle class and small to medium sized companies, this is a good start. Oh, and why not follow the successes of past 3rd world military juntas and arrest the former President and leader of the opposition party and maybe planting incriminating docs at his residence. The fiat Dollar note says "In God We Trust" but not "In Government We Trust."
ON THE QT FAILED BETA TEST
MONEYPOX STAGFLATION AHEAD?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 4.55%, DOWN another whopping .56% from July 11th, and lower by .06% from the 06-03-22 report below when Feds announced quantum tightening (QT) to begin the following week. See
06-03-2022 below titled THIS JUST ON THE Q.T.: A TITANIC UNDERTAKING?
Tightening, of course, would invariably push rates higher, as the Feds, instead of buying these mortgage-backed securities, pushing market yields lower, they sell them. .Come to find that the latest balance sheets show that the Feds bought $18.9billion (from $2.709 as if 6/29/22 to $2.717 trillion (that trillion with a T) today (this is a correction in figures posted in 07-01-22 report). So someone got the call to back off the QT after these rates took off during this latest downward mortgage rate movement. Then the question is how come 10yr Treasuries dropped in similar fashion, knowing that investors buy these with inflation expectations, and the latest inflation is at least triple the yield of 2.625% treasury note? Something is fishy here, but what isn't in a world of constant media misinformation. Back in October 2021, Fed Chair Powell said inflation was "transitory." Here's the same chart he was looking at (see 4 months up to October) since the PCE (personal consumption expenditure index) is the most favored by the Fed. Janet Yellen stated they didn’t see this inflation coming? What the? after printing trillions upon trillions of new paper Dollars since COVID fright night curtain opened?
Feds say don’t say the word “recession” even though 2 consecutive quarters has aways defined a recession, and this inverted yield curve chart tells the long and short of it on every recession since 1979. Don’t bother noticing the increases listed in today's PCE report here are month-to-month increases, and are "the largest annual increases since 1982." A 1% monthly increase, if continued for 12 months is 12%. Goods at 1.5% is 18%. but you can't make this stuff up: stocks rally on Amazon, where consumers are rushing to buy before prices rise again, and Google, a massive marketing service, “projects” higher revenues ahead as "market guidance?" US Stocks Enjoy Best Month of 2022 : "Sentiment further boosted as investor’s fears about the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking pace waned after the US economy unexpectedly contracted for the second straight quarter (rally on recession evidence?). On the economic data front, and check this chart out and click on max time period, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, improved slightly to 51.5 from the all-time low of 50 hit in June," This bizarre so-called market reaction is similar to stock rally on higher retail sales, but the increase was largely due to much high prices at the gas pump--go figure. Figure this then: what Federal government agency has been providing accurate “guidance” in fiscal, security, and healthcare services, and international relations that are guiding us to a war? If algorithms run the global market
place , who's behind the curtain?
Back on 03/27/2020, at the outbreak of COVID-19m we called out the media and CDC by titling the article: COMPUTER VIRUS OF A DIFFERENT SORT, and describing "a digital communications spreading panic and fear electronically via TV sets 24/7 throughout the world." Moneypox could be described as an international disease from the spread of too many Dollars resulting in Moneypox Stagflation. It's genetic symbol is stamped with an eye on top of a pyramid, and nations are beginning to reject the spread and extinquish it with their own gold-backed currencies.
Also published in November of 2021 is another connect-the-dot scenario in 3rd column and reprinted here:
A WAR GAME OF A DIFFERENT SORT?
What if there was a world war and nobody came? Or more realistically, if it was just outside the purview of the public using asymmetrical warfare tactics that disguise it--so well disguised that financial analysts missed it in their algorithmic projections? How goes the marketplace if this in fact is happening and discovered in the days or weeks ahead? If this were a war initiated from within and without, would deceptive strategies show up like military data points on a chalk board, such as a) information warfare that divides and censors the population, b) cyber attacks that cripple computer systems for
communication, and supply line infrastructures of food and energy, c) even including the use of weather warfare that create drought and massive fires in the West, hurricanes in the East, and floods in between, destroying food crops, poultry and beef production, d) blockage of imported goods, e) sabotage elections around the globe with bribes and coercion, f) massive infiltration of refugees in Europe and the U.S. of young males of unknown character, g) create a global panic that induces populations to line up for an experimental vaxx with unknown components h) then move to a strategy of a stealth physical assault using bioweapons that come in an injection form that slowly kill off vast amounts of global populations. So glad and relieved this is just a war game scenario, much of which is described in a Chinese military manual called Unrestricted Warfare (1999), and none of this, according to network media, is actually happening.
While many can see this in plain sight beyond Tell-A-Vision disinformation, these asymmetrical warfare tactics are definitely not happening according to 95% of today's media press releases. While these tactics are proposed in a Chinese manual, they are employed by global elites (which happen to include CCP). When only 5 individuals controling the 5 corporations that own mainstream media, it's easy to understand why all networks tell the same story daily, and not surprisingly, these 5 elites are part of this global plutocratic elite generically known as the Global Cabal bent on depopulation and control of the remaining. Notice media emphasizes unprecedented 1000 year storm events as "natural," and root cause is always manmade CO2 (thus the need for New World Order control over all energy resources), the reality is yes these are man-made and part of hidden war tactics that can be more devasting than bombs dropping. in fact, a newly tagged tornado event is being called a bomb cyclone, not to mention dry lightning, a term you won't find in dictionaries of the past. Over 40,000,000 have viewed the evidence at this website geoengineeringwatch.com that documents these weather manipulations using HAARP and other technology to steer storm systems. This indeed is war, and for we citizens, the job is to oust all of the puppets in the next election, and they easy to spot: officials supporting mandatory vaccinations, and RINOS who state the 2020 election was fair. All we see today has been the long-term plans by this Cabal and Bill Cooper saw the plans and predicted them all in his book Behold the Pale Horse written in 1991 and summarized the 2 paths for our future: “either the most wonderful experience* in the history of man or the most horrible enslavement that you can imagine.”
*(secret technology that includes 6,000 patents blocked by DoD allegedly for national security concerns)
Next week, we will publish Rumors And Rumors of Economic War of anonymous intel posts that suggest we are winning this war and some of the steps being taken on the possible coming wild August-September ride of epic proportions, assuming no communication blackouts before then.
See also in 3rd Column 10-18-2021
PARALLEL BUT OPPOSITE WORLDS APART? PLUTOCRAT VS THE SOVEREIGN
PEELIN' BACK THE ONION?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 4.91%, DOWN a whopping .50% from the year's high, reached on 6-14-22 at 5.43%, which was a milestone daily rate not seen since 11-24-2008-- a time period before the economic term quantitative easing was born, and right before the Great Recession really hit home. While analysts say that these long-term rate reductions that also aligned with the drop in 10yr Treasury notes resulted from stockholders seeking the "safety" of U.S. denominated debt, other most recent stats from the Federal Reserve tell a different tale. As reported on 6-03-2022 below, the Fed announced the time had come to end quantitative easing and introduce a new term, quantitative tightening. This plan to begin selling these mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the next business day resulted in rates jumping to these new highs by nearly 1% in just 7 business days! The Fed Balance sheets attached show that market forces had to be subdued. After selling $10,487 million (ie, $10.5 billion in layman's terms) in MBS by June 22nd and seeing the carnage of nearly 1% mortgage rate rise, The Fed turned around and by June 30th, bought an incredible figure of $396.014 billion, and added $587.9 billion in U.S. Treasury securities purchases. While those wild figures should be called into question, a look at next week's balance sheet would confirm and show the ending balance increase as of 6-30, not 6-29. Nevertheless, this about-face and aggressive purchases are what brought interest rates down and shows Fed backpedaling rapidly to their old accommodative ways. Will stockholders wake up next week and notice this titanic undertaking launched just a month ago just got torpedoed?
THIS JUST ON THE Q.T.: A TITANIC UNDERTAKING?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 4.61%, down .10% from May's average, as these yields don't tell the full story if the Feds carry out their quantitative tightening beginning Monday. This QE ship set sail back in 2009 with Fed Captain Bernanke at the helm coming up with what first appeared to be an ingenious plan to get a grounded economy running again by fueling it with low interest rates--without the burdens associated with borrowing on the open market or raising taxes to pay for it! For the first time ever, quantitative easing was launched whereby the Feds would interfere with market forces and buy these mortgage-backed securities to push mortgage rates to all-time lows, and keep them there, buoying the economy not just over rough months but for years. There's only three problems with that plan: first, the Feds didn't have the money to buy hundreds of billions in these securities on a yearly basis, so the Feds asked the Treasury to print up a boat load of Dollars, and secondly, the plan had no drop dead completion date. After 13 years of QE, that boat load of debt now weighs $8.9 trillion in Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities, enough to sink a normal sized boat or put a real drag on the largest Ship of State in the world. The Feds know they have to start unloading the bilgewater of debt (drain from the system) or face larger and larger inflation waves on the high seas ahead, fanned by the creation of money out of thin air. And the 3rd problem: who will be buying this debt without an attractive yield? That's likely what Chase CEO Dimon spotted in his eyepiece on the starboard side, having similar concerns with a different analogy in mind: "brace yourself--a hurricane" coming.
But what's really on the Q.T. and could spell r-e-l-i-e-f from this nauseating sea sickness down the road is found in the two reports below.
MAY DAY...MAY DAY...CACHE 22
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 4.78%, UP 1/8% from Friday, a rate not seen in these auctions since 04/23/2009, as April daily results drifted up methodically by nearly 1% from March average of 3.75%, and now a full 1% increase with today's results. While the "May Day" alert call traditionally meant that a plane was going down, this may seem an odd call except prices of bonds and these mortgage-backed securities go down when rates rise. So bondholders, big and small, see their assets shrink in value. When a country holding these assets, or large institutional investors in charge of client assets see this rapid decline, in all likelihood, managers will decide to sell to stave off further loses. But who will buy? In this market, the buyer of last resort has been Uncle Sam, who has to order up a new deck of printed cash from the Treasury to make the purchase (adds a digit in today's world), which drives up the very reason rates are rising: inflation (aka too much cash chasing too few goods, as the latest data in 2nd column report reflects). The central banks have seen this Cache 22 end game before as it all part of their own fiat Dollar creation. Their answer is a digital global currency reset, which the Biden Admin is now studying, one that they still control and no better backing than what the fiat Dollar has, so it's out of the frying pan, into the fire remedy. Others have a far better idea that clears out the old system and in with a new one, called the Quantum Financial System, much to the chagrin of central banksters (see 4/01/2022 report below) .
FOOL ME ONCE? RUBLE RUMBLINGS OF A SEA CHANGE?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 4.13%, backing away from a high of 4.33% reached on Tuesday, which matched 12/17/18 high, but still a 3/4% increase from February average, and 1.5% above December's average. With the DOW holding steady around 34,700 and some change, the markets act totally oblivious to today's events, which is an indictor these are controlled markets throughout the globe (see Monopoly--Who Owns the world in 10-18-21 report in 3rd column). Today, the Russians put their money where their mouth is and backed the Ruble with gold. Just two weeks ago, Saudis agreed to accept Chinese yuan for the sale of their oil, and the Yuan will be backed by gold. India plans to buy Russian discounted oil outside of Dollar currency and likely have the Rupee backed by gold or other commodities. With the Biden Administration proposing a $5.80 trillion budget, at least $1.5 trillion short of revenues, and total debt of a whopping $200 trillion when unfunded liabilities are factored in, countries have had enough of accepting this giant debt manufacturing operation called The Federal Reserve. As nations reject the Dollar as the world's reserve currency and payment for their goods, only bad things can happen here. If there was a plan to collapse the U.S. economy and living standards, this is it. But wait. Is there an alternative world ready to replace this old world of corruption and manipulations that will lead to eventual collapse? Once these control freaks are eliminated (now in process), many outside the control and suppression of new developments say "yes" and it's called the Quantum Financial System, and now up and running in parallel with the current beat up system. The Capitol Building is currently shut down, possibly symbolizing the sea change coming. The Federal Reserve has been rolled into the Treasury, The U.S, Corporation is now defunct, having defaulted in January on the last loan it will receive, and replaced by the Republic of the U.S. and new notes will be issued by The Treasury, backed by gold. Debts of a bankrupt corporation are no more, pension liabilities will be fully funded, and agreements with 209 countries are now in place to move to this new system. But where is all this gold coming from that backs existing Dollars? See report of January 1st, 2022 in 3rd column for the clues called : SCRIPT-WRITING TALES OF A 2022 FORECAST/ Curtain Falls/New One Opens
Is this an April Fool's script and report? Time will tell...
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 3.26%, .10% below February average, as Wallstreet focuses on the Fed punchbowl spigot, after Chairman Powell says only a minor increase coming of .25% this month. The DOW rose 541pts to 33,834 on the announcement as the audience applauds this referee's call that continues the scoring drive. While the games are televised, few have a clue that CGI techniques are being applied, as even short players can dunk the ball with ease. The Dollar is holding the ball seemingly in control, but the players' guide that charts stats shows a very weak bench should the Dollar suddenly get weak kneed from too much adrenalin injections (see chart on M-2 money supply growth increase of 40% since 2020). The Chinese and Russian benches are preparing a gold reserve concoction to strengthen their play in the next round, serving up gold to back their bench of currency, which could leave the Dollar backpedaling in defensive mode, with inflation nipping at every player's heels. The latest figures might be ok for Wallstreet betting on higher prices, but main street consumers are stuck with it and about to get mugged by radically higher prices for energy, and higher energy costs work their way through goods and services production lines (see energy chart). The CRB index tracks commodity prices overall, and the latest spike is historic according to this chart, albeit 2008 took a very sharp rise much higher before a very sharp fall from a severe recession. Adding to this unique March madness is the sudden government seizure of private company assets, not based on any crime committed, but on nationality and/or political support (there are over 300 U.S. companies doing business in Russia by the way). With this type of policy expanding, no assets are genuinely safe. As global supply chains continue being disrupted, including food and energy, those prices are ready to hit new heights. Energy runs the global economic engines, which provides jobs. Add "Going green" global policies before there's a replacement for fossil fuels will only contribute to stalled growth and fetch $8-$10/gal gasoline in the meantime. The Feds are trapped in that cache 22 world, where raising interest rates makes things even more costly, and create even more shortages. Computer Generated Imagery (CGI) makes for great entertainment and storytelling but are masking what's really going on. The markets may wake up Monday with the mask lifted and charts inked in red due to a whole new outlook. The only good beyond this madness is that rumors are a whole new playing field (sans CGI) is coming, and may create that March madness positive excitement of some tangible and real changes, not imagined, and history may just mark March of 2022 as the pivot point on how close we came to relentless madness. For now, cash is king for all households to weather this March madness.
THE INVISIBLE HAND vs THE HIDDEN HAND
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 3.13%, UP .14% from January's average. While the market expected 150,000 new jobs, the government says there were over 3 times as many at a whopping 467,000. Missing by that much is very strange, but stockholders went along with it. Way stranger still, no one said a bleep about the ADP Report (ADP handles payrolls nationwide for private companies and publishes estimates for many years now). The January figures projected last week estimated a loss of 301,000 private sector jobs in January! Anything like that would of course put stocks into a tailspin and send us right into a Black Monday event. Is this still a free market as Adam Smith in his book, Wealth of Nations, described?
"The invisible hand is part of laissez-faire, meaning "let do/let go," approach to the market. In other words, the approach holds that the market will find equilibrium without government or other interventions forcing it into unnatural patterns...
The invisible hand metaphor distills two critical ideas. First, voluntary trades in a free market produce unintentional and widespread benefits. Second, these benefits are greater than those of a regulated, planned economy. " Investopedia.
Now meet the hidden hand which magicians also call the slight of hand. Back in 2011, The Feds estimate of $1.3 trillion to the banks in the form of loans was used to keep Wallstreet running in the 2008-2010 financial taxpayer bailouts, but according to Levy Economics Institute, the total added up to $29 trillion, and much of which went to foreign banks. All this paper fuel eventually leads to the inflation fire starting now. Another sleight of hand is believing the Federal Reserve is an institution owned by our Federal Government, but it is a board that consists of a group of privately owned banks, "investment" banks who trade stocks. The board also requests the Treasury to issue cash/loans to their member banks. It's great work if you can get it. So stocks, including big bank stocks, rise on Federal job growth estimates that are over 3 times higher than private estimates, .and a 100 mile's distance from that of ADP estimate-- and they have a bridge to sell 100 miles sight unseen away as well.
SLIP AND SLIDE INTO 2022 (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.90%, UP .31% from November and December average levels, as bond melt-down begins. While it hasn't been a "bond bomb" just yet, there really isn't much to prevent rates from moving higher, as hyper-inflation of 12% (includes food and energy) can't just be wished away by the Feds. A dive into the stock market values shows only the market kingpins are keeping it afloat, as a rather "massive meltdown is occurring with 40% of Nasdaq companies have had their values cut by 50% or more from their 52-week highs." There are whispers in the underworld that a whole new system is about to be launched that will make this archaic system of boom/bust cycles, inflation/deflation and endless money printing obsolete. More details to come on this when and if they develop.
MAGICAL MYSTERY TOUR ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.50%, up a slight .03% from yesterday, even after the Feds announced today they to begin tapering off purchases of treasuries and this mortgage-backed securities beginning later in the month and the hourly trend monitor above says yields are improving to boot. Even stockholders seem to applaud this with DOW up 203pts to 32,327. and S&P hits new highs. This magical mystery move in the credit markets must have some basis for explanation because it begs the question: who will be stepping in to buy if the Treasury reduces the purchases of it's own debt creation. Are all those Dollars sloshing around the globe to offset emergencies by unknown creations over last couple of years having to find something, anything to buy since it doesn't pay to save (actually costs to save in in Switzerland and Japan). In Argentina, you can get a 38% note rate, although you get back less than what you paid since inflation there is running at 52% annually, or a loss of 14% on your investment. So if real inflation in the U.S. is running 12% (see article below), and you wanted to buy a mortgage-backed security for 2.5%, your loss of 9.50% isn't as bad as Argentina (12%-2.5%= 09.50% loss), but why would you do that, unless you riding on the magical mystery tour bus wearing kaleidoscope glasses. When phony yields meet funny money created out of thin air, it could be the bomb that didn't go off in October, and rumors are Evergrande really didn't meet their debt obligation in October (see Red October). For those seeking phenomenal mortgage rates before any bond bomb hits, call us today.
RED OCTOBER: BOND BOMBS AWAY?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.63%, up only 1/4% from Summer's averages, despite inflation numbers that compare with the late 1970s. Back in 1978, home borrowers didn't know how good they had it if they ended up with a 9.75% 30yr fixed rate mortgage. That's because rates zoomed up from there by 1% and then 12% and higher. Today, we have a slight of hand when dealing a deck of inflation data by eliminating food and energy, which put inflation rates up to some 12% and higher back then (see our 1984 report on these auctions dropping to 13.25% and rat rate schedule back then then). In those days, the "market rates" were determined by global institutional purchases of these mortgage-backed securities by money fund managers, and other global governments. Naturally, if inflation is running 12%, not a soul would be buying 2.625% yielding notes, unless that soul is the Federal Reserve to prop up this seemingly unbelievable bond and securities record low yields. As the chart shows, real cost of living vs the government's calcs are worlds apart, roughly 5% compared with 12%. Oh, but Feds say this 5% is transitory--yeah, as transitory as government printing money it doesn't have. So it's clear the public is being bamboozled and something has to give. The more devaluing the Dollar via printing out of thin air, the more Dollars it takes to buy the same basket of goods (it's elementary, dear Watson). Bottlenecks of goods around the globe appear to have little to do with old-fashion supply and demand, and will force the consumer to rethink contingency plans ahead this Winter as prices will be forced even higher on most every product. Another way to look at it, when the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, a $100 back then is now worth less than $3.50, hardly a reason for the Fed Reserve to take a bow, and gives more reason for John Q public to search in vain for things the government is good at --this as protests mount against government incursion into their lives, physical bodies, and wallets. With Evergrande capsizing in a sea of Red Chinese debt and bondholders' reassurance relying only on a government bail out of some $300b in debt, coupled with the drowning of D.C. in red ink this month, will this be the final push over the precipice? Will that fall be cushioned by a whole new global financial system--free of debt and outside the grasp of the old guard? Will barroom chatter consist of talk of the difference between a sovereign citizen's rights under a new system vs chattel property be on the rise? Is their symbolism attached to the firs time ever the White House is lit up in red this October?
REALVILLE HOUSE OF CARDS (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.37% up just a razor's edge from the average of the last 3 months, as the markets show little sign, if any, of the coming of Realville. A stock analyst said "no need to panic" not once, but twice, when talking about stock moving averages lately, so maybe there's a deeper meaning to it. Sometimes it's better to say nothing when you want to avoid the world of Realville. For instance, when a reporter was starting to asked White House spokesperson Psaki for her comments on 900 pages of documents proving Dr. Fauchi lied about his involvement in Wuhan Labs for "gain of function" for a particular V, she "bolted" away from the podium. The implications, of course, is the entire foundation on the whys and wherefores of the pandemic and subsequent global medical tyranny of forced injections, is about to crumble. Oddly, the market doesn't quite get the implications just yet since incredible is defined by Webster's Dictionary as too extraordinary and improbable to be believed . Case in point is 9-11-2001, where video clearly shows the official narrative to be totally false, yet it is still too incredible for many to believe it was an inside job. Psychologists say that when confronted with Realville, the mind of many will go into a protective mode to defend a pre-wired perception of one's reality, and this defensive reaction when confronted with Realville is called cognitive dissonance. Is Realville about to unravel many minds? When markets get a dose of it, they tend to fall back and ask questions later, and there will be many doses ahead coming from many angles.
THE PRECIPICE: SITE UNSEEN ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.40%, up .14% from the start of the month, rising slowly above the 2.33% average for July. As the markets stairstep their way to new highs due to intoxicating fumes emitted from Senate passage of a $1 trillion spending bill with another $3.5 trillion on the table for September (DOW at record of 35,264, up 167pts today), is this real or just a fantasy? After all, the markets hone in on key questions asked by analysts like: will it keep rising amid COVID variant rise? While that might be a legitimate question if a variant could actually be identified, or even COVID-19 itself, but the CDC admitted recently their PCR tests can't even differentiate between a cold or flu, or COVID-19, nor has the actual virus ever been isolated in the lab. Ask any lab technician if they can test for a specific antigen/virus when they don't have the sample, called the standard. But an even greater risk is that the cure is worse than the symptoms, and the cure rate from the symptoms is 99.5- to 99.98% depending on age and immunity system. Bottom line is death from COVID-19 is no greater than a bad season of the flu and simple solutions like HCQ cure it, yet government vaccine mandates are being announced today for teachers and public workers. This despite international laws that require consent. Biologists say this isn't a vaccine but actually, as Moderna calls their injection, an experimental "operating system" and mRNA inventor, Dr Malone calls it "gene therapy," and is opposed to using it as a vaccination. While stocks love to sop up all this liquidity flowing out of D.C. with inflated Dollars (that buys fewer goods) raining down from the sky, rational investors should ask is this real or just a fantasy? Now John Q Public is starting to say this is more like a nightmare where government is taking away freedom of choice. When some kid yells "the King has no clothes on" or some such dream awakening moment, what happens when the markets come to and find themselves standing at a precipice with the green screen of gentle rolling pastures is removed, and staring down a 5,000 foot drop? It might just be a Black Monday moment of jumping back in fear. That green curtain disguised the fact that there's been a war against the U.S. people and other nation states for decades, a covert war that first stripped away manufacturing base, that created dependencies on places like China. This asymmetrical warfare now being wage involves cyber warfare on energy and supply chains of food and equipment, control of the flow of information, and even weather modification systems that destroy food crops with floods and droughts, and fires, high energy and inflation, massive election fraud to destabilize and control governmental bodies, and now a bio-weapon to disable the population. This is a global war launched with infiltration from within each country. Word is this green screen will get pulled in the very near future to start the big reveal. But the good news is the markets will fall right into that Gate # 3 ride option described below, and a master switch is shut down, only to get switched on to a whole new financial system that freezes out all bad actor infiltrators. As Ramses would say in his day: So it is written, so it is done.
TWILIGHT OF THE TWILIGHT ZONE ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.41%, ditto of last month, as the FED fix is still in, keeping these rates down by being the buyer of last resort of these mortgage-backed securities. These yields were once called "market rates," but normally it takes two or more participants to call anything a market. When the President of the U.S. whispers to the public he "got $1.9 trillion" for us, you know we are at the edge of The Twilight Zone of economics. Fans of Rod Serling's writings know the story always ends with some irony and big surprises. But it won't be a surprise on why inflation will be the shadowy demon lurking in the background and gnawing on the wallets of Americans.
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.41%, near eye-lash even with May's average, as Feds keep this ship on auto-pilot. For those following events closely, we know what happened to a large vessel on auto-pilot traveling through the Suez Canal on Easter Sunday. The series of mortgage reports listed below could be dated today, and Gate #3 could be opening soon.
SHIP OF FOOLS ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.37%, moving slowly down through the week, and .10% below March average, as the credit markets set their ship on auto-pilot as Treasury keeps the bilges of debt from piling higher by printing up new money to keep things afloat. What does new money look like? Some of it shows up in the chart here on the expansion of M-2 money supply, going from 16,103 billion (ie, 16.1 trillion) in March 2020, to 19.7 trillion in February, a 22% increase in 11 months. Fed balance sheet chart shows a take off at the start of COVID in March from $4.10 trillion to 7.793 trillion by April,14, 2021, a 90% increase, all used to finance budget deficits and keep these mortgage rates low by buying them when the international markets won't.
The age old definition of inflation is "too much money chasing too few of goods," and the real estate market may be an early illustration of that. While home-owners call it appreciation, would be-buyers see it as an inflationary cost of living. It's a good time to expect the unexpected so lock in your rate today, and if you already own a home, buy silver and gold tomorrow, as fixed assets are a way to weather an inflationary storm brewing.
CAN'T FOOL WITH MOTHER NATURE ?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.49%, up .21% since the start of the week, and a whooping 1/2% from January's averages, as Fed cloud-seeding of the bond market to create artificially lower rates gets blown away by market forces. In a weird way, this action was duplicated on a much smaller scale where Game Stop professional short selling manipulators were trying to force this stock down, but millions of millennial traders ganged up on them, buying the stock , and blew the pros away with huge losses. investors worldwide are challenging the pros at the Fed by selling mortgage-backed securities (or any dollar-denominated debt), betting rates to rise naturally no matter what the Feds do, as the Dollar droops in value, some 4% from last year (roughly meaning bond investors at sale get back Dollars that are worth 4% less than what they had invested, or a supermarket example, it takes $4 more dollars to buy $100 worth of goods than it did 12 months ago) . Wild-eyed spending bills continue to pile on as Congress just passed new spending bill of $1.9 trillion without, as usual, showing how to pay for it.
QE3 SQUARED: TO INFINITY AND BEYOND? / ON A MAGIC CARPET RIDE (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 1.99%, ever so slight increase on January's average of 1.98%, as Feds continue to keep a lid on mortgage prices with their Midas touch. While everyone in the financial world offers predictions of the new year, much is based on scenarios so here are the potential flight patterns described like a new Disney ride:
Passengers. Please decide which trip you have selected and pickup your boarding pass at the gate:
Gate #1 requires a crash helmet for riders and offers a return to times of the pass, though the accumulated debt since 2010 is quadruple that, and accelerating like rocket man flying off to a new magical adventure, but this adventure ride has a finite journey when money is created, not by the production of goods and services, but by the movement of a decimal point to increase cash holdings, much like having $1,000 in savings and overnight goes to $10,000--a magical moment. However that magic ends due to the realities of the economic forces involved in just creating money on a wish: that $10,000 now buys you a 3 day solo trip to Disney World. Interest rates rise from inflation (mortgage rates were as high as 14% in 1984) and puts that home purchase out of reach.
Gate #2 also requires a crash helmet where governments all over the world attempt to stop this erosion of the purchase power of the Greenback (and other currencies) by creating a one world digital crypto currency. They claim it cannot be controlled or manipulated--like moving the digital currency supply another decimal point over--or so they promise. Carpet ride ends in a second heap next to Gate #1 exit, closing down the park.
Gate #3 requires seat belts for initial bumps in weeks to come followed by a complete overhaul and cleansing of global archaic systems that have corrupted and bankrupt nations over time--and the replacement stabilizes systems and creates a future of prosperity for all.
DEATH OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS GREATLY EXAGGERATED (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.46%, up a slight .01% from yesterday, staying in a narrow trading range, aided by FED purchases of these mortgage-backed securities. For several years now, the Trump Administration has wondered what life would be like without the Federal Reserve. Considering it is a privately owned (not publicly as we all once assumed) institution, and the owners own the 12 very large member banks, they get to instruct the Treasury to print money and give (loan at very low discount rate) to their own member banks, who loan it out at higher rates and also invest in stocks, bonds, and other securities. Nice work if you can get it. This group was established in 1914 to provide stability in the markets, but the track record, as famed economist Milton Friedman once said, is not a good one.
Economist Thomas Sowell explains why he agrees.
Other nations prefer to steer clear of this kind of private control by a handful of elites and some are choosing to trade in other currencies outside of the "Petro-Dollar." fearing the potential of a weakened Dollar from unlimited printing. Recall there once was a closely watched index call M-2, money supply measurement to monitor inflation potential, but few mention this anymore. The charts say maybe we should. M-2 over the last year grew by 6.8% but GDP grew by less than half of that so that other half doesn't represents the result from goods and services produced and sold. This chart shows growth from 1959 to present and note it took 40 years for money supply to grow to $5 trillion, but this doubled from there in half the time to over $15 trillion. Purchasing hard assets like real estate (while rates at historical lows), gold, silver and other precious metals would be good ways to defend against what is bound to come sooner or later.
APRIL FOOLS RUMORMONGERING (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.48%, up .10% from yesterday, exactly even with March average, as stocks drop (DOW at 21,168 by 750pts) due to more fears of virus projections, while a real war lies below the surface. What if the virus ends up killing less people than the 80,000 who died here in U.S. from a common flu in 2018, and is a smoke screen to eradicate an enemy described long ago by John F. Kennedy in his speech warning about the dangers of secret societies? What if these secret societies with nefarious goals own and control central banks around the globe, and Trump Administration just closed one of their head quarters here in the U.S. known as The Federal Reserve (a privately owned corporation who are also owners of its member banks)? What if all communications are shutdown for 3 days as part of a global roundup of what's known as New World Order Cabal? What if all of this is one big April Fool's joke?
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.38%, up .10% from yesterday's record low start, but still over 1/2% below February average. Stocks attracted money flows from the credit markets yesterday, and still holding their own this A.M (DOW at 22,396), as news that Chinese manufacturers showed "an unexpected strong rebound...
China’s official service sector purchasing managers index climbed to 52.3 in March from a record-low reading of 29.6 in February...The PMI readings were well above expectations and almost too good to be a true for an economy that is still not fully functioning at its pre-crisis optimum level, said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, in a note."
Another surprise is the Dollar rose higher, even as Treasury printing presses worked over-time, preparing for the $2 trillion U.S. relief aid package.
As low as these wholesale mortgage auctions have gone since February, lenders are awaiting a clear and stable level before diving lower. That's why it is best to have your loan in processing, awaiting significant moves.
COMPUTER VIRUS OF A DIFFERENT SORT (?)
FNMA wholesale 30yr. fixed-rate mortgage auction results: 2.41%, down .03% from yesterday, with the hour glass trend indictor above saying it's getting better all the time and likely beating the lowest return in 2020 and back in September 2012. Stockholders thought the same, and got off the mat, rising after last week's knock-out punch (DOW up 20% in last 3-day run), running around the ring like Rocky Balboa unchained, but got decked this morning (down 719pts at 21,815) with news headlines saying more in U.S. inflected than China's total. CDC says there were 80,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2018 from the flu, or 219/da on average, but did anyone notice except next-of-kin? While hospitals and clinics have lines of panicked people awaiting testing to see which kind of flu they might have, this new one, though more contagious, has killed only 1300 so far. Some analysts call the real threat a "computer virus," like digital communications spreading panic and fear electronically via TV sets 24/7 throughout the world-- one that could endanger the global economic system by continuing the status quo. Far more deaths and misery, they say, would occur similar to the '30s depression. President Trump is calling for a return to work following Easter Sunday, and have the 20% most likely threatened--the elderly and those with impaired immune systems-- continue self-quarantined at home.
While lenders are slow to jump on this latest movement until a series of new lows register, best to get loans in process, awaiting solid movement lower. When businesses re-open, it's likely these record lows will be over.